Transportation Fix, Take 2: The Cast and Plot Change

In Northern Virginia, the winning issue for Senate candidates was running against the regional transportation authority by advocating for a statewide solution.

"For years, we in Prince William and Fairfax have sent tax dollars to Richmond to support schools in other parts of the state," Sen. George L. Barker (D-Fairfax), who defeated incumbent Republican James K. "Jay" O'Brien Jr., said on his Web site in the fall. "We now have every right to expect that people in the rest of Virginia will pay taxes to greatly improve our transportation network" in Northern Virginia.

Sen. J. Chapman "Chap" Petersen (D-Fairfax), who unseated Republican Jeannemarie Devolites Davis, also derided last year's transportation deal on the campaign trail.

Senate Democrats remain confident of their position, as evidenced by the proposal from Majority Leader Richard L. Saslaw to create a 3 percent tax on wholesale gasoline purchases and to increase the car titling tax by a half-cent. Both are statewide levies.

There is little reason for Senate Democrats to compromise. If they do, they run the risk of being held responsible for another quick-fix solution, such as the failed and politically unpopular abusive-driving fees.

House and Senate Republicans are understandably wary of giving in to the Senate Democrats' proposal for a statewide tax increase.

The biggest threat to most House Republicans' reelection chances next year won't come from a Democrat. With all but a few Republican delegates in safe seats, the real campaign could come in the form of a primary challenge from an antitax conservative.

Last year, conservatives defeated two incumbent GOP senators and came close to unseating a third, Sen. Walter A. Stosch (R-Henrico), because of the strength of the antitax message in some parts of the state.

That movement remains strong in Virginia, as evidenced by the credible challenge of Prince William Del. Robert G. Marshall to former governor James S. Gilmore III in this year's race to become the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate.

Given that dynamic, Howell might find it a lot harder this year to marshal his caucus around another tax increase to solve transportation problems, especially when people downstate perceive the problems as unique to Northern Virginia.

Howell also might realize that all three Republican delegates from Fairfax County, David B. Albo, Timothy D. Hugo and Thomas Davis Rust, could lose next year and the GOP would still have a working majority in the House.

And if a statewide tax increase were a winning issue in most parts of Virginia, why did House Minority Leader Ward L. Armstrong (D-Henry) and Del. Brian J. Moran (D-Alexandria), a likely candidate for governor, vote against a proposal last month to raise the gasoline tax?