For Iranian Voters, It's the Economy
Choices for Parliament Are Limited, but President Is Not Immune From Critics

By Thomas Erdbrink
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, March 13, 2008

TEHRAN, March 12 -- As Iran prepares for parliamentary elections on Friday, voters find their choices largely limited to candidates who belong to the faction that brought the outspoken Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to the presidency.

But that doesn't mean the president has a smooth course ahead. Many of these candidates, though praising much of his confrontational foreign policy, roundly condemn his management of an economy that is stagnating at a time of unprecedented oil wealth.

Election vetting councils, meanwhile, have disqualified most dissident politicians who sought a place on the ballot. This camp, led by former president Mohammad Khatami, who advocates political loosening and better relations with the West but is not running himself, has no chance of winning a majority in the 290-seat assembly.

As the campaign wraps up -- last-minute fliers are being handed out in the streets and state television is urging people to vote -- victory seems certain for politicians who call themselves "principalists." Like Ahmadinejad, they say they want to fulfill the goals of the 1979 revolution: help the poor and enhance the role of Islam in society. They strive to place Iran among the world's leading nations. All closely follow Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who on several occasions has publicly supported them.

But reflecting widespread public disillusionment with rising inflation and unemployment, their criticism of the president's management of the economy is often strong. Some of these people -- former Revolutionary Guards, civil servants and idealistic young politicians among them -- openly accuse the government of being power-hungry, though it is headed by a fellow principalist.

Ahmadinejad, in turn, has accused the current parliament of sabotaging his plans to get the economy going. Last month he tried to increase executive power at the cost of the parliament's, but the supreme leader disagreed and intervened. Ahmadinejad's supporters say he needs more time to achieve his goals.

Whatever the specific results of Friday's vote, the Iranian president is likely to face stronger challenges from the incoming parliament than he did from the current one.

"Four years ago these politicians ran on the same list for parliament, but the high inflation, drastic unemployment and style of governance by Ahmadinejad have caused a division between them," said candidate Nader Talebzadeh, an Ahmadinejad supporter.

Even though Iran's electoral system is based on individuals and not on political parties, two opposing camps -- both part of what analysts here call the "inner circle" -- will dominate Iran's next parliament.

Political analysts here predict that critics of the current government are likely to be the bigger group. They are led by politicians such as Ali Larijani, Iran's former top nuclear negotiator, and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guards commander and current mayor of Tehran. They tend to be less isolationist and more pragmatic than the president.

The other group is made up of Ahmadinejad loyalists, determined to win the confrontation with the West at all political costs and defensive of the president's economic policies.

"The new parliament will agree on Iran's nuclear policy, discuss the tone of the country's foreign policy, but will challenge the president over the economy," Talebzadeh said.

Amir Hossain Rasael, a veteran journalist at the economic newspaper Sarmayeh, said that many former Ahmadinejad allies are distancing themselves from the government's economic policies. "Iran is like a high-speed train heading for an economical abyss. Ahmadinejad is at the controls, and all wise people are jumping off," he said.

Many voters, especially in urban areas, also criticize the president and his camp, saying ordinary people have been neglected.

"I want money to keep my family alive, but they give our wealth to Iraq and Palestine," said Ahmad, a factory worker, referring to Iranian aid. "They should stop doing that. Which of the candidates agrees with me? I will vote for him." He declined to give his family name.

According to Iran's oil minister, Ghollamhossein Nozari, the country will have received $63 billion in oil income in the year that ends March 20. Three years ago, oil revenue was less than a third of that.

"We are making record profits but the economy is in its worst state ever," Rasael said. "The president changed all government managers with inexperienced young people. Inflation is far over 20 percent, there are no foreign investments, and prices of housing and food have gone through the roof. Politicians don't want to take the blame for this."

The president's critics have offered few detailed plans for how to turn the economy around, other than to say that more technocrats are needed.

"The new parliamentarians will be critical of the president on the economy but not attempt to destroy Ahmadinejad," Talebzadeh said. "Criticism is healthy in a democracy like ours."

The central body in Iran's election process is the 12-member Guardian Council, which answers to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It disqualified 2,097 of 7,597 candidates on such grounds as being too young, lacking a university degree or being unable to prove their commitment to Islam, the Islamic republic and its system of leadership, in which a cleric holds supreme religious and political power.

Among those barred from running was Ali Eshraghi, a 39-year-old civil engineer who is a grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, leader of the 1979 Islamic revolution. Eshraghi told the Kargozaran newspaper that the decision to bar him had not been explained. "My neighbors told me they were questioned about my private life, including whether I shaved, whether I pray or fast or smoke," he said.

After a huge political dispute involving several of Khomeini's kin, most of them close to former president Khatami, Eshraghi was reinstated as a candidate by the Guardian Council. But he later pulled out, saying that after all the controversy he couldn't run a normal campaign.

Iran calls itself an Islamic democracy. Compared with some other countries in the region, it gives people more options to elect those in power. "Seventy-three percent of all applicants are approved, a large number," said Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaie, spokesman for the Guardian Council.

Hassan Ghaffourifard, a candidate and former vice minister, pointed out, "We had 28 different elections in just as many years." Speaking during an election rally of merchants, he said, "Perhaps the selection process is different in Western countries where parties decide, but Iran is the most democratic country in the world."

Outside Iran's circle of power, dissident politicians didn't agree.

"This election doesn't meet international standards because it is not free and fair," said Abdollah Momeni, an activist. "Citizens don't have the right to be chosen or to choose for themselves whoever they want. The vetting councils are partly deciding for them." The Khatami camp has been allowed to field candidates for only about 120 of the 290 seats being contested.

Momeni spent more than a month in jail last year for organizing student protests.

He was pessimistic that the small minority of politicians allied with Khatami would make a difference. "Their ideas don't really differ from the other factions. They need to keep their relations with those in power. I see them begging and lobbying to be in the next parliament. . . . I don't expect them to take a stance there when they do."

Mohammad Ali Abtahi, who was a vice president during Khatami's presidency, agreed that his group faced many obstacles. "But I feel we should try and get every seat we can in order to influence the government's policies," he said.

"We could make alliances with other groups. The important thing is that we participate," Abtahi said. "Otherwise we might not be allowed to run in the future and we will lose all influence."