Studying the Ins and the Outs

Teams' Fortunes Are in State of Constant Change

Over the past 48 hours, South Alabama Coach Ronnie Arrow has seen his team's NCAA tournament chances improve even though the Jaguars have not played since Monday. One by one, NCAA tournament hopefuls have fallen in recent games, restoring hope for any school that can simply avoid a loss.

"I felt like a bookie Thursday, watching every game," Arrow said in a telephone interview. "Usually, I watch for enjoyment. Whatever team could have been ahead of us, I was for the other team. Thursday was a very good day for us."

In all, 12 schools competing for the final few at-large berths lost on what bracket geeks have called Black Thursday. Yesterday, Ohio State, last year's national runner-up, suffered a costly loss against Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament. One of the few teams that took a step toward securing a berth was Virginia Tech, which earned its first victory against a top 50 team yesterday after it beat Miami. Jerry Palm, an analyst who projects the tournament field on http://www.collegerpi.com, said the already weak pool of bubble teams has been further diminished.

The string of recent setbacks makes for a unpredictable lead-up to Sunday's unveiling of the 65-team bracket and begs the question: Does anyone want to make this tournament?

"All I watch is ESPN, and I see the results," Virginia Tech guard Hank Thorns said. "All the bubble teams losing, that was really surprising. We are not putting any pressure on us. There is more pressure on other teams."

While several bubble teams have had bad weeks, Tom O'Connor, the selection committee chair and George Mason athletic director, has cautioned against "impulse buying," including or excluding a school largely because of one result. Instead, the committee most considers the body of work a team has compiled over the entire season.

"There is a lot of basketball to be played" this weekend, New Mexico Coach Steve Alford said after the Lobos lost to Utah in the quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference tournament. "But as far as our body of work goes, there won't be a lot of teams 24-8. Hopefully that is going to be enough."

Some coaches, however, viewed games this week as elimination contests. After his team lost to Georgia on Thursday, Mississippi Coach Andy Kennedy said: "We are not going to the NCAA tournament. You know that; I know that. Everybody knows that."

Syracuse Coach Jim Boeheim, whose team lost to Villanova in the Big East tournament Wednesday, felt his team needed to win a few games this week to have a chance to reach the NCAAs. Despite winning nine games in a deep Big East Conference, Boeheim knew his team was bound for the National Invitation Tournament after the loss.

The strength of another power conference, the Pacific-10, could also make for an interesting debate this weekend among selection committee members. In the case of three schools -- Oregon, Arizona State and Arizona -- the committee might have to decide which team recently has struggled the least.

All three schools lost Thursday in the Pac-10 tournament. All three likely would be in better position if they did not compete in the only conference in the country in which all but one team finished the regular season with winning records.

Arizona (19-14) is ranked 34th in the Ratings Percentage Index, the mathematical formula that measures a team's strength, largely because the Wildcats played the nation's second-strongest schedule. Selection committee members have said the RPI is only one tool the committee considers, but its perceived use has rankled some coaches from high-profile conferences.

"People are smart -- not me unfortunately -- but a lot of coaches, they figure that thing out, how to schedule," Kennedy said. "There's just been so much placed into that number that it needs adjusting."

Three schools -- South Alabama, Virginia Commonwealth and Illinois State -- saw their hopes improve with the series of setbacks among high-profile bubble teams. And two schools that appeared likely at-large candidates a week ago -- Baylor and Massachusetts -- took steps back with inopportune losses Thursday. The biggest disappointment was Baylor, the No. 5 seed in the Big 12 tournament, losing to 12th-seeded Colorado.

"When you are winning, you don't have to worry as much," Baylor Coach Scott Drew said. "Now we're in a position where all year long we have not had a so-called bad loss. But in a conference tournament, a 5 seed shouldn't lose to a 12. So hopefully they look at the body of work and not one game."

Baylor's Kevin Rogers added: "It is not in our hands anymore. All we can do is wait and watch on Sunday."

The Bears can take rooting interests in other games, as can several schools across the country. After yesterday's victory against Miami, Virginia Tech Coach Seth Greenberg said he was not rooting for any schools in key matchups involving bubble teams. Later, someone told Greenberg that Ohio State had lost.

Greenberg responded in jest: "Yeah, Michigan State!"