White Male Vote Especially Critical

Securing the votes of white men has become a critical factor in the Democratic race. Throughout the primary season, Clinton has dominated the votes of white women, but she and Obama have battled for support from white men.

In 27 states where exit polls were conducted, starting with Iowa on Jan. 3 and ending with Mississippi last week, Clinton won the white male vote 11 times and Obama 10 times. In five states, they basically split the votes of white men. Former senator John Edwards (N.C.) carried white men in South Carolina.

Obama has generally won decisively among white men with college degrees; Clinton has consistently done far better with those who did not graduate from college. Obama broke that pattern in mid-February in Virginia and Wisconsin. He barely lost among white men without college degrees in Virginia and won them in Wisconsin by 60 percent to 38 percent.

That appeared to be a breakthrough with potentially game-changing consequences in the Democratic race. Had Obama continued to cut significantly into Clinton's margins among less-educated white men and continued to outpace her among those with college degrees, she would have probably lost the popular vote in Texas and carried Ohio by such a small margin that she would have faced pressure to get out of the race.

Instead, she survived and kept the nomination battle going. In Ohio, she carried white, non-college-educated men by 66 percent to 31 percent. In Texas, she and Obama split the white male vote, but she carried those without college degrees by 20 points.

Stern and others see the challenge Obama faces not primarily as racial but in its broadest context. The question is whether a candidate can pass what Stern has called the "hang test." That is, can Obama relate easily and empathetically to working-class voters -- or, more simply, can he hang out with them?

Clinton demonstrated her ability to do so in Ohio, emerging as a champion of working-class voters battered by the impact of globalization and a decline in manufacturing jobs. Obama, in the view of one Democratic strategist with ties to organized labor, has struggled to show similar empathy. His call for change appeals more to upscale voters.

"It's going to take a real heavy emphasis on an agenda so that people see he's going to go to sleep at night and wake up every morning thinking about rebuilding the industrial base and kitchen-table economics," said the strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to candidly assess Obama's campaign.

Stern said Obama needs to talk more about his experience as a community organizer on the South Side of Chicago, where he worked with dislocated steelworkers and their families, and his own life experience.

"He needs to introduce himself not just in the broadest sense as a change agent and who is obviously very smart, but who has lived the life of a single parent, who had to take loans to go to college, who lived in communities in Chicago with steelworkers who lost their jobs," Stern said. "He has incredible credentials. He's walked more than a day in workers' shoes. But it's enormously important that he make that introduction."

Stern suggested that Obama spend more time in VFW halls or community centers, listening more than talking but also finding ways to relate his work as a community organizer to the lives of working-class voters.

Axelrod said he and other officials hope to modify the style of the campaign going forward, with less emphasis on big rallies.