At Kansas, Losing Is Usually a Prophecy Self-Fulfilled

There's one overriding question in this region: Is this the year Kansas Coach Bill Self finally wins a region final? The answer should be yes. Georgetown isn't the weakest No. 2 seed in the field -- Duke is -- but Wisconsin has to be considered the weakest No. 3 if only because it comes out of the Big Ten. Let us pause here to give the committee a deserved nod for having the guts to stand up to Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany by leaving Ohio State out of the field.

This region also has the weakest No. 4 in the field: Vanderbilt. Exactly who did the Commodores beat away from their funky home court? As long as Clemson gets over its "we lost to Carolina again" hangover and beats Villanova in the first round, the Tigers should beat Vanderbilt unless Shan Foster goes for about 40 against them. Siena can give Vandy a game in the first round but isn't likely to win. Kansas should have a virtual walk to the region final. Portland State will be overmatched and so will UNLV -- unless Kent State beats UNLV. The Runnin' Rebels are Kansas-lite, a team that can score but can't score like Kansas. The Jayhawks will handle whomever shows up in the round of 16 -- let's call it Clemson -- and could meet almost anyone from the bottom half of the draw in the final.

Georgetown is the most likely team to survive, but don't count on it. UMBC will keep it close for a while Friday in Raleigh but, in the end, won't have anyone who can handle Roy Hibbert. If anyone on the committee had bothered to watch the Retrievers play, they would have been at least a No. 14 seed, maybe a No. 13. They deserved a better fate.

So did Gonzaga and Davidson, another example of the committee putting really good mid-majors against one another in the first round. Gonzaga couldn't have played Arizona or Baylor or even Kentucky? No, they had to play a Davidson team that hasn't lost since December and should have played someone like Marquette (Kentucky's opponent) or Purdue or West Virginia. That will be a great first-round game.

So will Southern California-Kansas State, a made-for-TV game: O.J. Mayo vs. Michael Beasley. Winner advances to the second round to play Wisconsin (who will handle Cal State Fullerton). Loser advances to the NBA lottery. Either Southern Cal or Kansas State could knock off Wisconsin, although Bo Ryan's teams rarely lose to lower-seeded teams. The Badgers will struggle with, in all likelihood, Southern Cal.

That should send the Trojans to Detroit to play Georgetown, although you can bet the Hoyas will play a second-round game close enough with either Davidson or Gonzaga that it will end with Rich Chvotkin screaming, "Hoyas Win!" at least nine times -- eight short of his career record last year against Vanderbilt.

If Georgetown gets to Detroit, it won't have an easy time. If Rick Pitino is right, and someone up above (John Thompson the elder?) is smiling on the Hoyas, they may reach the regional final, but Kansas should beat them, or USC or Wisconsin. If the Jayhawks don't make the Final Four this year, Self should insist on playing in the NIT next year, or maybe the vaunted CBI (College Basketball Invitational), where for $60,000 you can buy home games. Now that's stupid.