Texas Might Prosper From Memphis's Free Throws

Memphis was the No. 1 seed everyone wanted in its region because if you can stay close to the Tigers, you're going to have a shot to beat them because they can't make free throws. John Calipari can talk all he wants about his team shooting 73 percent in the Conference USA tournament, but Memphis was never challenged in any of those games.

In all likelihood the Tigers won't be challenged until the round of 16 and perhaps not until the regional final. If they play Texas or Stanford in the regional final, though, they will be challenged.

Before anyone gets that far, though, Memphis will face a good team in the second round, whether it plays Mississippi State or Oregon. The theory in a game like that one is you go with the tougher conference: that would be the Pacific-10 and Oregon, a hot-and-cold team all season but one whose losses are, for the most part, to quality teams. The SEC normally does very well in this event, but this year could be the exception. Look for either team to hang with Memphis but get worn down in the second half.

It is almost overwhelmingly tempting to pick No. 12 Temple to beat No. 5 Michigan State because the Big Ten was awful this year. But Tom Izzo always gets his teams ready to play in this tournament, and the last time the Spartans made the Final Four they were a No. 5 seed playing a No. 12 (Old Dominion) that a lot of us picked to win. We were wrong. So, let's resist that temptation and figure Pittsburgh will beat Oral Roberts to play Michigan State. Winner gets Memphis in the round of 16. Pitt should win. The only caveats here are Izzo (again) and the fact that history says that teams that make big runs in their conference tournaments (winning as a No. 7 seed for example) tend to run out of gas in the big tournament. Pitt ought to win. It may not.

The bottom half has one of those disgraceful "take care of the big guys" first-round matchups: Marquette-Kentucky. Neither of these teams is very good but someone has to win that game. Virginia Commonwealth was more deserving than Kentucky, which padded its record in a not-so-hot SEC and couldn't beat Georgia in the SEC tournament. Stanford should beat Cornell in a game with lots of red on the court and in the stands, but the Big Red can shoot and it can play. The Ivy League hasn't won a tournament game since 1998, when Princeton was a No. 5 seed, and that likely won't change, but Cornell may be the league's best rep since then.

Stanford will beat Kentucky or Marquette (let's say Marquette on the better league theory), and that should set up a great round-of-16 game against Texas. The Longhorns are good -- much better than last year when they had Kevin Durant -- and, unless Fly Williams makes a comeback (remember college basketball's greatest cheer? "Fly is open, let's go Peay!") Texas will handle the Governors and will then beat Saint Mary's in the second round after the Gaels pull a minor upset over Miami.

This should come down to a No. 1 vs. a No. 2 in the region final if only because it will be a fabulous game. Overtime. Maybe double overtime. Texas wins when Memphis misses free throws.