Drop in High School Graduates Seen
Short-Term Losses Forecast in Md., Va.; Gain Expected in D.C.

By Valerie Strauss
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, March 20, 2008

Over much of the next decade, Maryland and Virginia will have fewer public high school graduates, but more of them will come from minority communities, according to a report issued yesterday.

The District, however, is expected to have a 50 percent increase in high school graduates from 2004-05 to 2010-11, before experiencing a six-year, 26 percent decline.

The projections are in the seventh edition of "Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity, 1992-2022," released by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. The report is considered the most comprehensive national look at demographic projections of high school graduates.

According to the report, this spring's graduating class of students in public and non-public schools will be the largest in U.S. history -- 3.34 million -- but it will mark the end of an era of growth.

Since 1994, the number of high school graduates nationwide has grown by about 36 percent, but a small decline is predicted until about 2015, the report says. By 2021-22, the number of graduates will have grown by almost 9 percent from 2004-05.

Seventeen states, including Maryland, will experience changes in the number of high school graduates, from a loss of 5 percent to an increase of 5 percent, from 2005-06 through 2021-22.

Maryland, which had a growth of 36 percent in public high school graduates from 1991-92 to 2004-05, will have a peak of 58,484 graduates this spring but a drop of almost 15 percent by 2016-17. A return to the 2004-05 peak is expected by 2021-22.

By 2014-15, non-Hispanic white students will account for about 45 percent of public high school graduates in Maryland, down from 62 percent in 1994-95. A 146 percent jump in Hispanic students is projected during the decade starting in 2004-2005, and the number of non-Hispanic black graduates will increase by a little more than 1 percent.

Five states, including Virginia, will experience increases of 5 to 10 percent from 2005-06 through 2021-22.

Virginia will have a peak this year of 81,000 public high school graduates and then a dip of 4 percent by 2014-15. By then, non-Hispanic white students will account for almost 58 percent of all public high school graduates in the state, down from almost 72 percent in 1994-95.

A 130 percent jump in Hispanic public high school graduates is projected in Virginia during the decade that began in 2004-05. An overall recovery is projected by 2021-22, to 88,000 graduates.