Indiana Shapes Up as a State of Parity for Democrats

Clinton already has a 5 to 2 lead among Indiana's 12 superdelegates (her supporters include Bayh, former Democratic National Committee chairman Joe Andrew and Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Dan Parker). The five Democrats who represent Indiana in the House -- several of them locked in tough races of their own -- remain uncommitted.

"Clinton would probably have an upper hand," said Jay Howser, who was campaign manager for Rep. Brad Ellsworth in 2006 and who is not aligned with either presidential campaign. "Although there's probably a heavy base of African American support for Obama in Indianapolis, it's a state that responds well to Clinton."

Clinton's alliance with Bayh, son of Indiana legend Birch Bayh, is already paying off. She hitched herself to the senator and former governor Thursday for a "Hoosiers for Hillary" tour that began in his birthplace, Terre Haute, a working-class and culturally conservative pocket of the state.

At every stop, the two talked about their long friendship, their seats next to each other on the Senate Armed Services Committee, their joint trips to Iraq and Afghanistan, and their late-night political discussions. Recalling a recent conversation on the Senate floor, Bayh said: "I told her, I said, 'Many of our families are facing challenges.' . . . You know what she said to me? She said, 'Those are the people I want to fight for. And if you will stand with me, I will stand with you to build a better America.' "

The handicapping in other state contests also makes Indiana uniquely important. Its primary falls on the same day as voting in North Carolina, where Obama is widely considered to have the advantage. If Clinton wins Pennsylvania, as expected, she hopes to ride that momentum into the remaining contests, including those in Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. Losses in Indiana and North Carolina would quickly blunt any claim to momentum for her.

The Obama campaign has been careful to play down the significance of any single contest now that it holds the lead in pledged delegates. But in a nod to Indiana's symbolic importance, the campaign has put it in the hands of Mitch Stewart, the former caucus director for Obama in Iowa.

David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist, said Friday: "Pennsylvania is an uphill battle for us. West Virginia is an uphill battle for us. Kentucky is an uphill battle for us." But he added: "Indiana is going to be a real fight."