By Griff Witte
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, March 30, 2008
JERUSALEM -- The future of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is now bound up in three distinct sets of negotiations that are all interrelated, all vital for any hope of peace and all completely stuck.
The first, U.S.-backed talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority aimed at creating a Palestinian state, have been knocked off course by violence in Gaza City and mutual accusations of broken promises.
The second, negotiations mediated by Egypt between Israel and Hamas that are geared toward ending the Gaza attacks, began in earnest only this month but is already eliciting deep skepticism from both sides.
And the third, efforts to reconcile Hamas with the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority, could jeopardize the other two if they succeed, although that appears unlikely.
"It's like a puzzle. Each track is affected by the other two," said Ali Jarbawi, a political science professor at the West Bank's Bir Zeit University. "Right now, none of the tracks are moving because each side thinks that if they move on one track, they'll lose on the others."
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in the region Saturday to try to break some of the impasses, but policymakers from all three camps -- Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Hamas -- are projecting gloom. They note that while a breakthrough is still possible, the situation on the ground does not favor reconciliation.
The stalled negotiations reflect the triangle of mistrust and animosity that prevails in Israel and the Palestinian territories. Israel views Hamas, the radical Islamist movement that controls Gaza, as a security threat. It accuses the Palestinian Authority, the moderate and secular group that holds sway in the West Bank, of not doing enough to rein in militants.
Both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority believe the four-decade-old Israeli occupation needs to end but disagree bitterly over how -- through violent revolt or internationally endorsed compromise.
The closest thing to progress in any of the talks came in the past week when representatives of Fatah and Hamas announced in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, that they had negotiated terms for holding more negotiations. The next day, however, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas disavowed the agreement, and his representative in Sanaa acknowledged that he had signed the deal by mistake.
The very fact that Abbas and his allies are considering a compromise with Hamas reflects their disenchantment with the offers they are getting from Israel, according to Menachem Klein, a political science professor at Israel's Bar-Ilan University.
"I don't see signs that Israel is ready to go beyond certain lines. I don't see the Palestinians being happy with what they're hearing from Israel. And I see the Americans saying it's not our business," said Klein, who during the Camp David negotiations in 2000 advised then-Prime Minister Ehud Barak. "So this brings them to talk with Hamas."
The latest round of discussions between Israel and the Palestinian Authority began with great fanfare in November at an international conference in Annapolis. So far, the talks have yielded no substantial progress.
Barak, now Israel's defense minister, said in an interview that the Palestinians have not done what they were supposed to do under the 2003 plan known as the "road map" to peace -- namely to improve security and crack down on extremist groups.
"They lost clumsily the control of half of their own people. And they lost track of weapons," Barak said, referring to Fatah's withdrawal from Gaza last June after days of gun battles with Hamas fighters.
The result of the Palestinian Authority's failure, he said, is that Israel is asked to make more concessions. "We are called of course to double our efforts to help them, because they're weak," he said. "It's ridiculous."
Barak said Wednesday that he had agreed to allow the transfer of armored vehicles and other security equipment to Abbas's government. He also announced a slight easing of travel restrictions for West Bank businessmen.
But he stopped well short of announcing the removal of checkpoints and other barriers, more than 500 of which block Palestinians' access to internal West Bank roads.
As part of the peace process, Israel was supposed to take down the obstructions, eliminate illegal settler outposts and stop construction of new settlements. None of that has happened, a fact that rankles Palestinian Authority officials who are looking for goodwill gestures that will help convince a disenchanted Palestinian public that talk -- not violence -- pays off.
"The model in the West Bank is not working. If it is, somebody please tell me, because I need to tell the people," Salam Fayyad, the Palestinian Authority prime minister, said in an interview in his Ramallah office. "It's critical that there's progress to take us out of the corner we're in."
Meanwhile, negotiations on final-status issues such as the boundaries of the future Palestinian state, the rights of refugees and control of Jerusalem are being conducted in strict secrecy, with no hints of progress. "We decided that until everything is agreed, nothing is agreed," said Tzipi Livni, Israel's foreign minister.
Even if there is an agreement, all sides acknowledge they will be incapable of implementing it as long as Hamas controls Gaza.
Israel has contemplated a military invasion to retake the coastal strip, which it left in 2005. But such an operation would be very bloody.
With rockets arcing into southern Israel from Gaza every day, the Jewish state has opted to negotiate -- trading truce proposals with Hamas in a process mediated by the Egyptians.
Israel will not negotiate directly, because it considers Hamas a terrorist organization. Hamas refuses to acknowledge Israel's right to exist. But analysts say a temporary cease-fire could serve both sides, giving Israel relief from the rockets and Hamas time to regroup.
One crucial sticking point is whether under any resulting cease-fire Israel would end military operations not only in Gaza but also in the West Bank. Israel's answer has been no. Hamas, which aspires to lead in both territories, has insisted it must be yes.
"We need it to be a real cease-fire," said Hamas foreign affairs adviser Ahmed Yousef. "We can't enjoy calm in Gaza while our people in the West Bank are being attacked."
The political division of Gaza and the West Bank that began last June could change if Hamas and Fatah strike a deal.
Fatah, which dominates the Palestinian Authority, has demanded that Hamas give up control of Gaza as a prerequisite for talks. If Hamas complies and there is then an agreement, fresh elections would probably follow.
The deal would be risky for the Palestinian Authority. Israeli officials have said any reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas would torpedo hopes of an agreement this year to create a Palestinian state. With Hamas's popularity surging and Fatah's plummeting, Abbas and his allies also face the prospect of being voted out of office.
But without such a deal, Palestinian Authority leaders have little hope of creating a state that includes both territories.
Hamas leaders, meanwhile, believe they could benefit no matter how the negotiations end. If there is a deal with either Israel or the Palestinian Authority, the movement's leaders indicate, they will get credit for having forced the other side to accept their terms. And if not, Hamas can simply continue a campaign of violence that is proving attractive to Palestinians who are fed up with the ineffectiveness of negotiations.
"Hamas," Yousef said, "is getting stronger every day."
Correspondent Cameron W. Barr and special correspondent Samuel Sockol contributed to this report.
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