Pairing Might Be Last, Best Hope for GOP Establishment

And Republicans should be worried about the ability of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) to attract tens of thousands of new voters into the process this fall if he is the Democratic nominee for president. If Democratic operatives are doing their job, at least some of those new voters will return to the polls for next year's governor's race.

The growing excitement gap between Democratic and Republican recruitment efforts underscores why Bolling's decision to seek reelection is not entirely a good thing for the GOP.

Although it might enable the party to avoid a divisive and expensive nomination fight for governor next year, it also shuts out other candidates from running for lieutenant governor.

After losing the past two governor's races, it would have been good for the GOP to try something bold to engage the swing voters who have been siding with the Democrats. The new generation of GOP leaders, many of whom are more attuned to the state's changing demographics, will have to wait four more years before they get their turn, making it harder for McDonnell to find new potential GOP voters.

McDonnell and Bolling might be forced to rely on the conservative GOP machinery that propelled the party into power in the 1990s. But, as everyone knows, that coalition of social conservatives and rural voters came up short in efforts to reelect George Allen to the Senate in 2006 and keep Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) from being elected in 2005.

McDonnell and Bolling barely won their elections in 2005. McDonnell beat Sen. R. Creigh Deeds (D-Bath) by 360 votes. Bolling beat former Congresswoman Leslie L. Byrne, a Democrat from Fairfax who is running for Congress this year, by 22,000 votes.

Because McDonnell and Bolling have spent much of the past two years gearing up to run against each other for the GOP nomination for governor, they have amassed fairly conservative records.

At least in Northern Virginia, McDonnell is known as an outspoken advocate for doing more to crack down on illegal immigrants. But that issue has yet to be a proven winner this decade in Virginia.

McDonnell has also sought to burnish his credentials with gun rights groups.

Last year, McDonnell got into a high-profile spat with New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg (I) over the mayor's efforts to crack down on illegal gun sales in Virginia. This year, McDonnell filed a brief with the Supreme Court opposing the District's ban on handguns.

McDonnell has taken steps to reach out to suburban swing voters, including becoming a national leader in efforts to crack down on child predators and to promote Internet safety. He also played a key role in brokering last year's plan to raise more money for transportation. But that plan is in shambles after the Virginia Supreme Court ruled Feb. 29 that parts of it were unconstitutional. Bolling's highest-profile accomplishment this year was voting to break a tie on an amendment in the Senate to cut off state funding for Planned Parenthood of Virginia, which offers abortion services.

McDonnell advisers say they think he will connect to Fairfax voters because he used to live there. And in 2005, McDonnell got a higher share of votes in Northern Virginia than Bolling or former attorney general Jerry W. Kilgore, who lost to Kaine.

But the Fairfax of the 1960s looks little like the Fairfax of today.

The challenge for McDonnell and Bolling will be to prove they can lead the Virginia GOP into a winning future. It's a doable task, especially for a team that starts with strong conservative support in a state such as Virginia.

If they fail, however, the Virginia GOP will be in need of serious makeover, and that doesn't mean it will be Bolling's turn to lead the ticket.