By Tim Craig
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, April 3, 2008; LZ04

RICHMOND After being out of the governor's mansion for most of this decade, Virginia Republicans faced a choice for 2009.

They could have a free-for-all nomination battle to settle on a new generation of leaders that would take them into the next decade -- and hopefully back into the governor's mansion -- or claw their way back into power by rallying behind a leader early on.

Last week, they might have delivered their answer.

Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling announced that he will seek reelection rather than run for governor. Bolling's decision might have effectively handed the GOP nomination for governor to Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell.

McDonnell plans to formally announce his candidacy for governor in a few months. He and Bolling plan to run as a team.

On paper, McDonnell and Bolling would be a formidable ticket.

Having grown up in Fairfax County and relocated to Virginia Beach as an adult, McDonnell could have appeal in the two vote-rich regions of the state that have been trending Democratic. Bolling would balance out the ticket geographically because he grew up in southwest Virginia and has lived as an adult in suburban Richmond.

A former Army colonel, McDonnell probably would appeal to the estimated 800,000 veterans who live in Virginia. And although he is closely aligned with the conservative wing of the party, many Democrats in Richmond say McDonnell comes across as fairly pragmatic and is surprisingly bipartisan in how he conducts his office.

There is still plenty of time for another GOP candidate to emerge, but McDonnell's r¿sum¿ and his ties to Northern Virginia have some Republicans assuming he is a heavy favorite to win next year.

But that's a risky assumption for Virginia Republicans, who might be desperate to win next year, especially if former governor Mark R. Warner (D) continues the recent string of Democratic successes by winning his bid for the U.S. Senate this year.

McDonnell and Bolling are a perfect match to secure the GOP base of social conservatives, which should guarantee them at least 46 percent of the vote in next year's election. They each would need 50 percent to win, assuming no third-party or independent candidate steps in.

Neither McDonnell nor Bolling has demonstrated an ability to bring new voters into the GOP or reach out to the state's increasingly diverse electorate.

And Republicans should be worried about the ability of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) to attract tens of thousands of new voters into the process this fall if he is the Democratic nominee for president. If Democratic operatives are doing their job, at least some of those new voters will return to the polls for next year's governor's race.

The growing excitement gap between Democratic and Republican recruitment efforts underscores why Bolling's decision to seek reelection is not entirely a good thing for the GOP.

Although it might enable the party to avoid a divisive and expensive nomination fight for governor next year, it also shuts out other candidates from running for lieutenant governor.

After losing the past two governor's races, it would have been good for the GOP to try something bold to engage the swing voters who have been siding with the Democrats. The new generation of GOP leaders, many of whom are more attuned to the state's changing demographics, will have to wait four more years before they get their turn, making it harder for McDonnell to find new potential GOP voters.

McDonnell and Bolling might be forced to rely on the conservative GOP machinery that propelled the party into power in the 1990s. But, as everyone knows, that coalition of social conservatives and rural voters came up short in efforts to reelect George Allen to the Senate in 2006 and keep Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) from being elected in 2005.

McDonnell and Bolling barely won their elections in 2005. McDonnell beat Sen. R. Creigh Deeds (D-Bath) by 360 votes. Bolling beat former Congresswoman Leslie L. Byrne, a Democrat from Fairfax who is running for Congress this year, by 22,000 votes.

Because McDonnell and Bolling have spent much of the past two years gearing up to run against each other for the GOP nomination for governor, they have amassed fairly conservative records.

At least in Northern Virginia, McDonnell is known as an outspoken advocate for doing more to crack down on illegal immigrants. But that issue has yet to be a proven winner this decade in Virginia.

McDonnell has also sought to burnish his credentials with gun rights groups.

Last year, McDonnell got into a high-profile spat with New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg (I) over the mayor's efforts to crack down on illegal gun sales in Virginia. This year, McDonnell filed a brief with the Supreme Court opposing the District's ban on handguns.

McDonnell has taken steps to reach out to suburban swing voters, including becoming a national leader in efforts to crack down on child predators and to promote Internet safety. He also played a key role in brokering last year's plan to raise more money for transportation. But that plan is in shambles after the Virginia Supreme Court ruled Feb. 29 that parts of it were unconstitutional. Bolling's highest-profile accomplishment this year was voting to break a tie on an amendment in the Senate to cut off state funding for Planned Parenthood of Virginia, which offers abortion services.

McDonnell advisers say they think he will connect to Fairfax voters because he used to live there. And in 2005, McDonnell got a higher share of votes in Northern Virginia than Bolling or former attorney general Jerry W. Kilgore, who lost to Kaine.

But the Fairfax of the 1960s looks little like the Fairfax of today.

The challenge for McDonnell and Bolling will be to prove they can lead the Virginia GOP into a winning future. It's a doable task, especially for a team that starts with strong conservative support in a state such as Virginia.

If they fail, however, the Virginia GOP will be in need of serious makeover, and that doesn't mean it will be Bolling's turn to lead the ticket.