Warning: Congestion Ahead
In Virginia, a coming showdown over transportation funding

Monday, April 7, 2008

VIRGINIA'S BUCKET of money for highway and mass transit projects has sprung a major leak. The skyrocketing cost of upkeep and repair, which by state law take precedence over construction, is draining away money originally intended for building and improving the state's increasingly inadequate network of major roads. Memo to traffic-stressed commuters: Brace yourselves for much worse to come.

The leeching of road-building funds into the maintenance budget, which began in 2002, is accelerating at an alarming rate. Aging roads and bridges, mostly built to withstand much less traffic than they carry today, are crumbling. Commodity prices are soaring. This fiscal year, about 20 percent of the $1.3 billion originally earmarked for highway construction statewide will be siphoned off for maintenance projects. At current trends, spending on highway construction a decade from now will have dwindled to the budgetary equivalent of pocket change -- or about half the relatively paltry 1988 amount. Spending on maintenance will outstrip construction by about 8 to 1. The chart above reflects the coming shift; when the dollars are adjusted for inflation, the picture looks even worse.

Translation: Very few roads of any size, scope and impact will get built, even in the state's congestion hubs. That will be the case even if the General Assembly manages to restore hundreds of millions of dollars in construction revenue for the urban areas of Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads whose collection was recently blocked by the state Supreme Court. For one thing, the amounts that would be raised by the new taxes and fees -- some of which depend on real estate sales -- are dwindling because of the economic downturn. What's left will be increasingly sponged up by higher prices for oil, asphalt and structural steel along with the expanding maintenance problem.

With good reason, Democratic lawmakers in Richmond are giving notice that it will not be enough simply to reinstate the funding package struck down by the court. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) is also spreading word that he wants a statewide effort to address the problem, not just a patch for the urban areas. Meanwhile, Republican legislators are burying their heads in the muddy banks of the James River. Never mind that the General Assembly has not tapped a new funding source for transportation since Ronald Reagan's presidency. Rather than contemplate raising statewide taxes for roads, Republicans would rather that Virginians sit in ever-worse traffic, even at peril to the economic vitality of Northern Virginia. The gathering storm is likely to come to a head this spring if, as expected, Mr. Kaine calls a special session of the legislature to tackle transportation funding.

It would be nice to think a compromise is possible. Unfortunately, the state GOP, particularly in the narrow-minded precincts of the House of Delegates, has repeatedly shown itself more fixated on doctrinal purity and partisanship than on problem-solving. The political price of that stance is clear: Democrats took control of the state Senate this year and are starting to look like they may be able to take the House in next year's elections. In Northern Virginia, elected Republicans are an endangered species. If Republicans once again impede a real and durable solution to the state's transportation mess, they should be prepared to pay dearly at the ballot box.