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Tomorrow's Emerging Markets
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· Dubai, with few remaining oil and gas reserves, gets more than a quarter of its revenue from the Jebel Ali Free Zone, a main port on the "new silk road," linking India, China and North Africa with Europe, through the Middle East.
· Abu Dhabi, by far the richest of the United Arab Emirates, is turning itself into a cultural destination. It will host branches of the Guggenheim and Louvre museums and is building a center for the performing arts.
· Saudi Arabia hasn't opened its stock market to foreigners, although investors expect that to change. For now, it's courting international capital to help finance six new "economic cities," built around industries such as oil refining, shipping, steel, petrochemicals and information technology. Saudi Arabia's conservative culture doesn't jibe with world tourism (no women in shorts or even pants sauntering in Riyadh's parks!). Instead, it's building Islamic tourism centered on Mecca and Medina.
· Qatar, possessor of vast natural-gas reserves, is building the world's largest gas-to-liquids plant with Royal Dutch Shell's participation. Five major U.S. universities have opened campuses there, including Weill Cornell Medical College and Texas A&M University.
At the moment, the GCC countries aren't included in the emerging-market equity indexes that managers use for their global asset allocation. If that changed, "it would be colossal," said Brad Durham, managing director of EPFR Global in Boston, which tracks fund flows.
In January 2006, MSCI Barra launched separate GCC indexes for the six countries -- a move that will probably generate some U.S.-listed, GCC exchange-traded funds.
The new T. Rowe Price fund holds 60 percent of its assets in the gulf, which is even benefiting from the conflicts in Iraq, Iran and Lebanon. "Money flows to the GCC," said London-based Joseph Rohm, vice president of T. Rowe Price International. "They're the stable economies and safe haven in the region."
Clearly, markets like these aren't for sissies. The GCC stocks bubbled in 2005, crashed in 2006 and haven't climbed back to their former peaks. Hot money rushed in at the close of 2007, when GCC stocks (not counting Saudi Arabia) leaped almost 40 percent. So far this year, they are up 2 percent. Easy money can rush out again.
The current building frenzy is a worry, too, as the countries compete for the financial and tourist trade. They risk creating a glut and a collapse, said Richard Thompson, London-based editor of the Middle East Economic Digest.
It will be a rough ride. But over time, following the money pays.
Jane Bryant Quinn, author of "Smart and Simple Financial Strategies for Busy People," is a Bloomberg News columnist. Alexis Leondis in New York contributed to this column.


