Long Nomination Battle Hampers Democrats' Chances in November

RICHMOND At the start of the year, Virginia and national Democrats had high hopes that the state's 13 electoral votes could be up for grabs in the Nov. 4 presidential election.

But as the fight between Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) grinds on, it's starting to feel as though the Democratic prospects in Virginia might be slipping away. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the presumptive GOP nominee, should be an early favorite to win the state, and he probably grows a bit stronger every week there is not a Democratic nominee.

Virginia hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, but a Washington Post poll last summer showed that four in 10 voters prefer that a Democrat be elected to the White House in 2008, compared with three in 10 who said they want a Republican. A Post survey in October found a similar result.

Many Democratic officials in the state say Clinton couldn't carry Virginia, a belief reaffirmed after her poor showing in the state's Feb. 12 primary, when she managed to get just 35 percent in a race that drew 1 million voters.

Obama, however, could potentially be the first Democratic presidential candidate in more than a generation to win the state.

Because Virginia has large numbers of African Americans and well-educated voters, many Democrats think Obama could drive up turnout in Northern Virginia and the state's urban centers to be competitive -- if he also finds a way to win over a little more than a third of voters in rural areas.

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) and the state's three Democrats in the U.S. House say Obama's potential to win Virginia is one of the reasons why they endorsed him.

The ramifications of an Obama victory in Virginia, which President Bush won by eight percentage points in 2004, would be huge for Democratic prospects to win the White House.

If he can win Virginia, as well as the states that Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) carried in 2004, Obama would be five electoral votes shy of winning the White House. If he also wins Iowa, Nevada or New Mexico, states that Kerry narrowly lost, Obama would be the next president, regardless of what voters in Ohio and Florida decide.

But McCain, a prisoner of war in Vietnam who has a reputation for being relatively moderate on some issues, will run strong with veterans and will appeal to Republicans and some independents who live in Northern Virginia and suburban Richmond.

McCain also appears to be solidifying the GOP base of social conservatives, a big chunk of Virginia's electorate.

Obama, who pledged at the Democrats' Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner in February to campaign hard in the state, needs time to undercut McCain's expected advantages in a state such as Virginia.