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8 Questions About The Pennsylvania Primary
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Will Democratic superdelegates coalesce, or could this go to the convention?
6. Republican Ben Ginsberg wrote: "The superdelegates I know (and for some reason they seem unburdened talking to a Republican) want a way out. So they're looking for a win by either that's enough to give them cover."
That's a view that appears to be gathering steam. Superdelegates will decide the nomination, but they prefer not to be decisive in the outcome. That means they'd like to see this end sooner, although the delegate math works against that happening. Short of an Obama victory today or twin victories on May 6, the nomination battle will continue through the end of the primary season in early June.
But the prospects for a convention battle appear smaller than they might have a month ago. Democratic strategists are increasingly confident that, once the primaries end, the superdelegates will quickly coalesce around the candidate with the lead in delegates and popular vote.
"Unless Obama collapses between now and then, I believe they will move quickly after the voting is done in June, and move towards him," wrote Democratic strategist Tad Devine. "That will be the third wave of superdelegate movement, and whoever wins the third wave will win the nomination. This fight will not go to the convention."
Could there still be a Democratic dream ticket?
7. When Clinton first started talking publicly about this, she was seen as audacious -- a trailing candidate suggesting that the front-runner take the vice presidential nomination. Now there are some Democrats who now believe Clinton may be open to the possibility of running on a ticket as Obama's vice presidential nominee.
But the prospect that once thrilled many Democrats now appears less appealing to top strategists. That dream, wrote one Democrat, disappeared "somewhere along the road from Akron to Altoona." The two campaign staffs don't like one another at this point and by the time this ends, given the escalation of attacks the past few days, relations could be even worse. Mark Kornblau, who was traveling press secretary for John Edwards, called an Obama-Clinton ticket "a nightmare" for the party. Another Democrat said putting Clinton on an Obama ticket would rob the senator from Illinois of his "change" message. Others said any deal over a dream ticket would be complicated by the role of Bill Clinton.
"Obama and Clinton could still run together -- stranger things have happened in American politics," a fourth Democrat wrote. "But I'm not sure I would call that the 'dream ticket.' At this point the dream ticket would likely have the name Gore at the top."
Has John McCain used this period effectively to get ready for the general election?
8. McCain has had the general- election field largely to himself the past month. He has effectively consolidated the party establishment and tamped down talk that the base doesn't like him (although he may not have solved that problem). He has done a biographical tour, embarked yesterday on a campaign swing to show his openness to minority voters, and has tackled economic issues.
Republicans are cautiously optimistic that McCain's campaign is doing what it should. They say he is wisely making organizational changes for the fall, that his economic message has solidified the party's base and that he has appeared as a grown-up amid squabbling by Democrats.
"He knows that his key to victory is building a coalition on top of a Republican base that includes conservative Democrats and Independents who are drawn to his bipartisan credentials," wrote Kevin Madden, who was press secretary in Mitt Romney's presidential campaign.
Democrats think he is squandering this period. If he loses, they say, he will regret not putting more distance between himself and President Bush now and not taking over center ground more aggressively before Obama or Clinton can move back to the middle after their left-leaning nomination battle.
Privately, a number of Republicans agree. Some fear that neither McCain nor the Republican National Committee is doing enough to overcome the Democrats' energy and financial resources, and look good now primarily because Obama and Clinton are preoccupied with each other.
"After their race is over, their winner will get a bump in the polls," a GOP strategist wrote. "The McCain campaign's ability to respond to that will be their first real test of the general."


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