Military Waivers for Ex-Convicts Increase

However, those with waivers were "quite a bit more likely" than other recruits to be separated from the service for misconduct within two years, and "recruits with felony waivers have the highest chance of a misconduct separation," it found.

"It is absolutely an important indicator," said Christine Wormuth, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "But," she added, "it won't mean 100 more Hadithas or cases of soldier abuse," referring to the November 2005 killing of as many as two dozen civilians by Marines in Haditha, Iraq.

Waivers granted for felonies and other crimes constitute the majority of all waivers -- about 60 percent for the Army, and 75 percent for the Marine Corps. But other exceptions are also increasing, suggesting that the Army and Marine Corps are bringing in lower-quality recruits, according to Pentagon data and experts.

Army and Marine Corps waivers for medical problems -- such as being overweight -- increased last year. Medical waivers constituted about 30 percent of all Army waivers last year and 25 percent of those for the Marine Corps. Also, in recent years the Army has been accepting more recruits who are not high school graduates.

"The numbers seem pretty clear to me that we are lowering standards, and it's difficult for me to see how that wouldn't have a negative impact on the quality of the force," Wormuth said.

Lengthy war-zone deployments are an important factor discouraging youths and their parents from considering military service, according to military officials and surveys. A decision this month to reduce active-duty Army tours in Iraq and Afghanistan from 15 months to 12 months beginning in August will start a long process of alleviating some of that stress, Thurman said.

By late 2009, he estimated, the amount of time that active-duty soldiers will have at home between combat rotations will increase from a year to about 18 months, assuming no new demands are placed on the Army overseas.