Clinton Defeats Obama in Pennsylvania Primary

By Chris Cillizza
washingtonpost.com Staff Writer
Tuesday, April 22, 2008 10:25 PM

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) claimed a much needed victory over Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) in Pennsylvania tonight, her fourth victory in the last five contests in the Democratic presidential race.

ABC, NBC, CNN, Fox News Channel, the Associated Press and Reuters all declared Clinton the winner, and Clinton was also leading in the early vote returns. With 66 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton led Obama, 54 percent to 46 percent.

"It's a long road to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and it runs right through the heart of Pennsylvania," Clinton said at a victory rally in Philadelphia tonight. "You know the stakes are high and the challenges are great. But you also know the possibilities," she told the assembled crowd that began chanting, "Yes We Can", a takeoff on Obama's familiar "Yes We Can" motto.

Clinton seemed determined to remain in the contest, insisting that the American people were owed a "president who won't quit" and predicted that "the tide is turning."

Clinton's win came after a six-week campaign that saw her double-digit lead shrink beneath an onslaught of television ads by Obama, who outspent Clinton by at least two-to-one in the state.

"Hillary Clinton was once again able to win one of the key Democratic states that we need to win in the general election," said Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe in an interview on CNN. "Hillary has proven she is the one best able to take on Senator John McCain in the fall."

McAuliffe cautioned viewers not to"write off" Clinton, arguing that Obama's campaign "couldn't put us away here, they couldn't put us away in Texas."

Clinton's victory ensures that she will continue in the campaign for the presidential nomination at least through the May 6 primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. The longer-term impact of Pennsylvania's vote, however, will be determined by Clinton's margin of victory today. A small single-digit margin for Clinton would likely be portrayed by her opponents and the media as a loss as she would not make a serious dent in Obama's lead among pledged delegates and in the popular vote count. A bigger win could give Clinton the momentum she needs to make a serious push in the final weeks of the nomination fight to overcome Obama's advantages.

Even Clinton's staunchest allies acknowledge that unless she is able to shrink Obama's leads among pledged delegates and the raw vote before June 3, when South Dakota and Montana close the nomination fight, she will struggle to make the case to superdelegates that she is the better choice against McCain in the fall.

Meanwhile, Sen. John McCain rolled to a largely uncontested victory in the Republican primary. McCain (Ariz.), who has had his party's nomination locked up for more than a month, faced no serious opposition, although former foes Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul were still on the ballot. McCain spent Election Day in Youngstown, Ohio.

The Democratic race was an entirely different story, a slugfest befitting the high stakes for both candidates. Clinton looked to Pennsylvania's primary vote to provide her yet another important victory in her uphill fight for the Democratic presidential nomination. Obama saw the Keystone State as another chance to lock up the nomination with an upset win over the New York senator.

Preliminary exit polling suggested the increasingly negative tone of the final days of the contest had made an impression with voters. Nearly two-thirds of respondents said Clinton had "unfairly attacked" Obama while roughly half of those interviewed said Obama had attacked Clinton unfairly. Those are the highest numbers on that particular exit poll question since the Florida primary early this year.

On issues, the six weeks between the March 4 votes in Texas and Ohio and today changed little. The economy remained the dominant issue -- named by more than half of all voters as the most pressing issue facing the country -- with Iraq and health care lagging far behind. Both candidates had focused heavily on the economy, particularly the rising costs of gasoline, in the runup to today's primary.

Women comprised nearly six in ten voters and Clinton won that group, 56 percent to 44 percent, according to updated exit polling. Obama claimed the male vote by a slightly smaller margin of seven.

As has been the case almost since the beginning of the primary season, the vote was divided starkly along racial lines. Clinton won the white vote 60 percent to 40 percent while Obama claimed the black vote by a massive 92 percent to eight percent margin. White voters made up more than 80 percent of today's electorate while black voters comprised 13 percent.

Mirroring the results in Ohio and Texas, both of which voted on March 4, late deciders opted for Clinton. Among those making up their mind in the last three days, Clinton led Obama 57 percent to 42 percent; those who decided on their candidate before that time split almost evenly between Obama (51 percent) and Clinton (49 percent).

Voters who own a gun and attend religious services went for Clinton by double digits. Clinton received 60 percent among those who own a gun or have a gun in their household; the New York Senator carried a 12 point margin among those voters who attend religious service weekly and a slightly more narrow seven point edge among those who occasionally go to some form of religious services.

Obama created a massive controversy in the runup to the Pennsylvania vote by telling a group of donors at a San Francisco fundraiser that those living in small communities in the Keystone State "cling" to guns or religion.

Following her primary victories in Texas and Ohio, Clinton entered the six-week stretch leading up to the Pennsylvania vote as the prohibitive favorite. Polling showed her with wide double-digit leads over Obama and there was some talk that the Illinois senator might not play seriously in the state.

That suggestion proved unfounded as, buoyed by the endorsement of home-state Sen. Bob Casey Jr. and an extended bus trip through the state, Obama rapidly closed the gap with Clinton. In the final weeks of the race, Obama heavily outspent Clinton on television -- raising the possibility, if not the probability, that he could end the nomination fight with a win in the Keystone State.

Clinton needs a strong showing in Pennsylvania and the remaining contests to help make her case to party officials and superdelegates to the national convention this summer that she is the stronger Democratic candidate to take on Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) this fall.

Both candidates began their day in Pennsylvania. Obama munched on pancakes at Pamela's Diner in Pittsburgh this morning, although he flew to events in Indiana later in the day. Clinton will spend her day and night in Philadelphia where her campaign is planning a victory party.

Heading into today's voting, Clinton trailed Obama in pledged delegates and the popular vote. Pennsylvania, and its 4.2 million registered Democrats, represents the New York senator's best chance to drastically cut into Obama's margins on both scores.

At stake in Pennsylvania are 158 pledged delegates -- by far the biggest trove available in the final 10 contests. With the exceptions of Indiana (72 delegates), North Carolina (115) and Puerto Rico (55 delegates), Pennsylvania has roughly the same number of delegates at stake today as all of the other six remaining contests combined.

With so much -- figuratively and literally -- on the line, the campaign has taken a nasty turn in recent days, with Clinton questioning Obama's readiness for office and Obama insisting that Clinton is in the pocket of lobbyists and other special interests.

The clash reached a crescendo on Monday with the release of an ad by Clinton's campaign that used images of Pearl Harbor and Osama bin-Laden to subtly raise doubts about Obama's readiness for office.

"It's the toughest job in the world," says the ad's narrator. "You need to be ready for anything -- especially now, with two wars, oil prices skyrocketing and an economy in crisis."

Obama struck back quickly with an ad of his own -- touting his own judgment in opposing the Iraq war from the start and condemning Clinton's tactics. "Who made the right judgment about opposing the war and had the courage and character to speak honestly about it?" the narrator of the Obama ad asks. "Who in times of challenge will unite us, not use fear and calculation to divide us?"

Even as the candidates warred over the airwaves, each side sought to play down expectations in advance of today's vote.

The Clinton campaign has insisted for much of the last week that Clinton's margin in the state is immaterial, focusing on the idea that a win is a win. On a conference call earlier this week, Clinton chief strategist Geoff Garin called suggestions of a 15 or even 20 point victory "ridiculous," adding: "Senator Obama made a conscious decision to try and change the stakes here. They are not spending $3 million this week simply to improve the Pennsylvania economy."

Obama has overwhelmingly outspent Clinton in the state, a function of his huge fundraising lead over the New York senator. At the end of March, Obama had $42.5 million in the bank as compared to just $9.3 million on hand for Clinton. Clinton's campaign also carried more than $10 million in debt at that time, a sign that her effort is currently running in the red.

That money disparity and Obama's leads among pledged delegates and in the raw vote make the Illinois senator's campaign confident that regardless of the results tonight he remains a strong favorite to win his party's nomination.

"Tonight's outcome is unlikely to change the dynamic of this lengthy primary," argues a memo distributed to reporters this afternoon by the Obama campaign. "We expect that by tomorrow morning, the overall structure of the race will remain unchanged -- except for the fact that there will be 158 delegates off the table."

Obama currently leads Clinton by about 140 delegates, and neither is expected to reach the required number of 2,024 in pledged delegates alone. Rather, the nomination appears likely to be decided at the convention by nearly 800 unpledged "superdelegates," a key constituency that each side is hoping to sway by their performances in Pennsylvania and ensuing nominating contests that conclude on June 3.

Polling places in the Democratic primary opened at 7 a.m. Eastern time and closed at 8 p.m.