Britain's Labor Is 3rd in Early Vote Results

Local Elections Widely Seen as Barometer of Support for Brown

LONDON, May 2 -- Early returns indicated Prime Minister Gordon Brown's Labor Party was headed for significant losses in local elections that mark Brown's first major test with voters since taking office last summer.

More than 4,000 local council seats in England and Wales were to be decided in elections widely viewed as a barometer of Brown's national support ahead of national elections due by May 2010.

The BBC reported that with 92 of 159 local councils reporting, the Conservative Party had 44 percent of the vote. Labor was running in third place with 24 percent, behind the Liberal Democrats with 25 percent.

Results of the day's most closely watched race, between London Mayor Ken Livingstone of Labor and Conservative challenger Boris Johnson, were not expected until Friday.

With opinion polls showing Brown's approval rating as low as 28 percent and increasingly vocal division within the party, analysts said Labor was likely to suffer heavy voter backlash when initial results started coming in late Thursday.

A recent YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph found the Conservatives leading Labor, 44 percent to 26 percent, when Britons were asked their preference in the next general election. Only 17 percent said they approved of the Brown government's performance, and many other polls have shown similar trends.

"Many people are saying, 'We probably don't want to have them in power after the next general election, and we want to give them a good kicking today,' " said Anthony King, a professor at Essex University who has written extensively about British politics and the Labor Party.

Surveys suggested the London race was too close to call. It will likely be decided by "second preference" votes cast by supporters of the eight other candidates on the ballot, who are running far behind Livingstone and Johnson in opinion polls.

A loss for Livingstone, who is seeking a third four-year term, would be a high-profile defeat for Brown and Labor, even though Livingstone is a maverick who claims only loose ties to Labor and his relations with Brown are widely seen as cool.

But analysts said a loss to Johnson would give a major boost to Conservative leader David Cameron, who hopes to capitalize on Brown's sagging approval ratings to win back the prime minister's office that Labor has held since 1997.

"That would certainly cheer up the already pretty cheery Conservatives," King said. "There are going to be a lot of nervous members of the Labor Party after today."

Brown's popularity has waned since he took over from Tony Blair in June. He has been hurt by economic woes triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States.

He suffered great political damage last fall when he appeared close to calling a snap general election, then decided against it when shifting poll numbers suggested he might lose.

The apparent waffling was a particular blow to Brown, who established a reputation for decisiveness during more than a decade as Britain's chancellor of the exchequer, or finance minister.

More recently, Brown has had to capitulate to rebel members of Parliament in his own party over a change in tax law that critics said would harm low-income Britons.

Brown is also facing stiff opposition within the party over his proposal to change the law to increase the time that police can hold terrorism suspects without charge from 28 days to 42.

All those factors have contributed to a growing sense in Britain that Brown's government lacks strength and leadership, King said.

"There are almost too many reasons" for Labor's sagging fortunes, he said. "Labor under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown as chancellor took all the credit for the good times and now they are getting the blame."