Questions Consume Kremlin-Watchers As Putin Steps Aside

At a rally in Chechnya last week, a portrait of Russian President-elect Dmitry Medvedev slightly obscures one of the outgoing president, Vladimir Putin. (By Musa Sadulayev -- Associated Press)

What remains uncertain is how Putin intends to exercise this power, and to what end. Is he simply biding his time before returning to the Kremlin as president, consolidating his new position so as to rule out the unlikely possibility that Medvedev might warm to the presidency and turn against him? Or has he been careful to maintain so much power in order to protect Medvedev while the neophyte president establishes his own base in a system that would devour him without Putin's oversight? Or is there no grand strategy, and the two men, while agreeing to share power, have not looked beyond the horizon?

Olga Kryshtanovskaya, director of the Moscow-based Center for the Study of Elites, is certain of one thing. "I'm absolutely sure that Putin is coming back" as president, she said. "Whether that happens in two or four years, I don't know. But he will be coming back for 14 years, two new seven-year terms."

Kryshtanovskaya points to calls by political figures such as Gryzlov for parliamentary and presidential elections to be held two years apart rather than close together, as they are now. Splitting the polls that way could trigger a new presidential election in 2010. United Russia leaders have also spoken of extending the presidential term to seven years.

Such amendments to the electoral law could see Putin back in the Kremlin until 2024. Nor has Putin ruled out a return to the Kremlin; indeed, he has publicly flirted with the idea on occasion.

"I think Medvedev is a willing participant in all of this," Kryshtanovskaya said. "Of course, there is a very small chance that Medvedev might betray him and become a real president, and some of Putin's moves recently are to protect himself from that."

But Sergey Markov, a United Russia lawmaker and political analyst, said that if Medvedev proves up to the job and broadly follows the policies set by Putin, then the former president will leave the stage in a year or two.

"Putin is Medvedev's political father," Markov said. "If Medvedev is successful, Putin will step aside. He wants to give the chance to someone else. He will not become a simple pensioner, but he is not obsessed with keeping power. Of course, if Medvedev fails, he can return."

In a framework that is decisively weighted toward Putin, Medvedev will have to struggle to impose his will -- even if that is his mentor's wish.

According to Shevtsova and others, early indicators of his strength will be his ability to place his own people in key positions and stake out policies that break with the past, such as rebuilding relations with the West and sidelining some of the hard-liners. Media coverage, particularly first billing on state-controlled television, will be another sign. Finally, Medvedev applying a Putinesque tongue-lashing to the government led by Putin would be a clear signal that there is a new sheriff in town.

"With two drivers, there will be conflict, even paralysis," Shevtsova said. "Medvedev has to show he has the guts, courage, vision and charisma to consolidate his own position."