Eight Questions About Today's Primaries

After today, which state will be most important to determining the Democratic contest?

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Democrats Split Indiana and North Carolina

Sen. Barack Obama won North Carolina's presidential primary by a wide margin Tuesday, while Sen. Hillary Clinton narrowly won in Indiana.

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4. This is a trick question. The right answer is probably that "none" is that critical. After today, the states line up in predictable fashion: Clinton should easily win West Virginia in May 13, Kentucky on May 20 and Puerto Rico on June. 1. Obama is heavily favored in Oregon on May 20 and Montana and South Dakota on June 3.

After today, there will be only 217 pledged delegates up for grabs. The final six contests will have little effect on the delegate count, and only by running up huge margins in her best states could Clinton overcome Obama's lead in the popular vote in the states that held sanctioned events.

The real answer to this question is one cited by a number of strategists: Michigan and Florida. The seating of those delegations remains unresolved, and Clinton continues to press for a solution that would give her a boost in the delegate count. The most important date on the calendar after today could be May 31, when the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee meets to consider the matter.

Is there a person remaining whose endorsement could make a difference in the race?

5. Al Gore, if he were to decide to get involved. But he hasn't given any indication that he's prepared to step out of his role as advocate for the planet and back into the grubby world of intraparty politics.

If Gore, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid went together, that would be even more significant. That seems even less likely. The other big fish left in the pond is John Edwards, who was courted hard immediately after he got out of the race. Obama and Clinton paid tribute to him at last Friday's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Raleigh, N.C., vowing to carry on his fight to eradicate poverty (Clinton said she would appoint a Cabinet-level official to lead the effort). That showed that they both still think he might yet make an endorsement.

If Obama wins the nomination, can he win working-class white voters in November?

6. Every Democratic and Republican strategist will be looking at the exit polls tonight for clues. Obama has struggled to win working-class white voters in virtually every state this year. But does that mean he can't do well with them in November if he is the nominee?

Strategists divide this question into two parts: Can Obama win back working-class voters who participated in the Democratic primaries, and can Obama win among the broader working-class white electorate?

"Senator Obama will win Democratic working-class voters in November," wrote Democrat Bill Carrick. "But independent working-class voters will be a major battleground between Obama and McCain in November."

Another Democratic strategist, Ron Klain, wrote: "The fact that he is losing some of these votes to Clinton is no sign at all about their preference in the fall." Optimistic Democrats believe that if Obama is their nominee, he can draw a very sharp contrast on economic issues with McCain and, in the end, will draw more than enough support from working-class whites to win the election. "Obama will measure up quite well against John McCain," one Democrat predicted.

But Republican Neil Newhouse offered a contrary view, one shared by others in his party, who say the non-primary working-class electorate will present serious problems for Obama.

"Not as long as there is any surviving videotape of Rev. Wright's comments," he wrote. "Clearly Obama's candidacy and image have been damaged by the Wright and 'cling' remarks. Once his liberal issue positions are really litigated, these votes are going to be a very difficult audience for Obama.

If Clinton wins the nomination, will black voters support the Democratic ticket?

7. This is a much bigger worry among Democrats than Obama's potential problem with working-class white voters. As one Democrat sympathetic to Clinton wrote: "If she names Obama [as her running mate], yes. If not, no. There will be a reckoning."