Eight Questions About Today's Primaries

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Democrats Campaign in Ind. and N.C.

After Hillary Rodham Clinton's win in Pennsylvania's April 22 primary, the Democratic presidential candidates moved on to Indiana and North Carolina. Front-runner Barack Obama is hoping wins in both states on May 6 will ease concerns that he would not be a strong candidate in the fall election.

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The worst-case scenario, painted by a Democrat, is a collapse of the party's coalition, with both African Americans and young people demoralized by Obama's failure to win the nomination.

Other strategists -- Republican and Democratic -- see a more likely scenario of Clinton winning a huge percentage of the African American vote, but turnout depressed enough that it could potentially cost the Democrats states such as Ohio or Missouri.

As one Democratic strategist put it, "Depends on the meaning of the word 'enthusiastic.' " The real question is under what circumstances Clinton wins the nomination, and whether her victory would be seen as trampling on the will of the voters who participated in the primaries and caucuses. Democratic pollster offered an equivocal "yes" to this question. "As long as people are convinced the process was fair and the loser stands clearly and unambiguously with the winner."

Who do Republican leaders see as the tougher opponent -- Obama or Clinton?

8. No official word from the McCain campaign, although his staffers do respond rather quickly whenever Obama says anything critical about their candidate. That may show only that they expect Obama to be the Democratic nominee.

From the world of Republican strategists, there is no consensus. That, obviously, is a shift from two months ago, when almost every one of them would have said Obama. It's been noted here before that Obama's string of problems has caused Republicans to reevaluate him -- and Clinton's resilience has reminded them that, despite her polarizing nature, she is a tough candidate.

"Make no mistake," wrote Todd Harris, a Republican strategist who worked for Fred Thompson's campaign. "Both would be tough." Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster, said Obama would be tougher, in part because he thinks the press will treat him kindly. But he said many Republicans would prefer to run against Obama because they see him as untested.

A Republican familiar with the McCain team put it this way: "I think the McCain campaign sees Obama as the superior campaigner, but they fear HRC more." But another GOP strategist wrote, "I think Obama's more difficult because of the change agent vs. the septuagenarian contrast."

GOP strategist Mike Murphy, a past adviser to and still friend of McCain, offered this perspective: "Now most would say Clinton, but that is a canard. Ultimately the real opponent is the generic anti-Republican vote. In the end it will be about McCain. If he cannot lock the center, he will lose."