Identifying The Core

As a result, the Nats may face a cold necessity at the end of this season. Even if rookies like pitcher Collin Balester arrive, much more may be needed. Unless Johnson, Kearns, Peña (no homers), Hill (0-0), Cordero (no saves) and others regain full health or "re-identify" themselves, it's going to be time, high time, for the Lerners to open their checkbook. Say it slowly: Free agents.

Two years ago, Nats execs indicated that, by the time the new park opened, they'd probably gaff a free agent drawing-card star. But talk is cheap and, well, the amateur drafts went so promisingly and the new-park improvements were so pricey that they changed their minds. Why not just wait a year and take a shot at rehabilitating Dukes?

The time is approaching at light speed for the Nats to use all available means to compete. Even though the revenues at Nats Park are roughly the same as a sellout every night at old RFK, the Nats still have the 14th payroll out of 16 in the NL. The rival Phillies, Mets and Braves all have three key players with $14 million to $15 million-a-year deals. The Nats, despite a publicly built park, compete with top players around $5 million.

Let's do a mental math exercise. Suppose the Nats pursued four free agents who fit their needs -- pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets and the double-play combo of Rafael Furcal and Orlando Hudson. Fantasize that they sign three of them for $45 million a year? Then subtract $15 million for the contracts of Paul Lo Duca, Cristian Guzmán and López, who aren't signed for '09.

The net increase in payroll would be only $30 million, still leaving the Nats under $85 million -- in the middle of the sport and well below the current payrolls of the Mets' $138 million, the Braves' $102 million and the Phillies' $98 million. Yet the Nats might have a rotation of Sabathia, Sheets, Hill, Balester and Lannan. A playoff contender? At least.

Every free agent doesn't sign with the same team. But if the Nats don't sign at least one of these prime players, all of whom fit their needs, they'll have a ton of questions to answer. While it's nice to talk about amassing a dozen core standouts, it's far harder than it sounds, as Nats fans are already discovering. Pitchers are inherently perishable. "Projecting" 30 homers, off bush league stats and BP tape-measures, doesn't make it true.

"Nobody knows what our 'core' number will be by the end of the season. Just in the outfield alone we don't know if it's 'four' or 'zero.' They all have high ceilings," said General Manager Jim Bowden of Milledge, Kearns, Peña and Dukes. "Lannan just had 21 shutout innings. Redding's throwing great. And who will we bring up from the minors?"

If that number of clearly-in-focus core players is high on Sept. 28, then the Nats may well finish over .500 and perhaps need only to pursue a couple of free agents and end up signing one. But if, come the offseason, the number of Nats who seem fit to carry some future team to a World Series is still as paltry as it appears now, then it's time for the Nats to stop congratulating themselves on their farm system while begging fans to be patient with another low-budget losing team on South Capitol Street.

It'll be time to open the wallet and close some deals -- deals with an "s."