New Allies In Asia?

For his part, Hu used his visit to reinforce his image as a pragmatist who pursues continued economic growth as his top priority. There was none of the insulting bombast of Jiang Zemin, the Chinese president who visited here in 1998 and cast a decade-long pall on Japanese-Chinese relations.

Japan's modest growth over the past five years has been fueled almost entirely by its exports to China. While markets elsewhere have reached saturation levels, China's appetite for Japanese finished goods and manufacturing parts is unabated. Choosing his words with care, Fukuda hinted that Japan's economic future may lie in Asia rather than in its traditional markets in Europe and the Americas.

Chinese-Japanese trade now approaches $250 billion a year. Japan has invested more than $6 billion in China and has 20,000 companies operating there. Even China's big increases in military spending do not seem to rattle Fukuda's administration.

Japan today has more to fear from social unrest and collapse in China than from armed attack, Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba says. "We must not let China go into some level of chaos. We will do whatever we can to avoid that."

This does not mean that Japan has to accept China's terms for such a relationship. Japan's $4.3 trillion economy is still the second most powerful in the world, while China's is fourth at $2.7 trillion. Japan still has cards to play in deflecting or derailing China's march to economic dominance.

Under Fukuda, Japan has chosen to accommodate rather than to confront China, and Hu has reciprocated. That is a sensible course for the present. China can learn much from Japan's democratic, nonbelligerent experience.

jimhoagland@washpost.com