Hillary Agonistes

The fall matchup polls miss the point that, as Al Gore well remembers, presidential elections are decided by electoral votes. Atlantic's Marc Ambinder divvies up the pie, including states "leaning" to one candidate or another, and gives McCain a lead of 245 to 221, with Florida in the Republican's column. (The magic number of course is 270.)

Ambinder's tossup states: Pennsylvania (21), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (7), Ohio (20), New Mexico (5) and Colorado (9) -- 72 electoral votes.

How does the GOP's political health look at the Weekly Standard? Pretty bad, says Fred Barnes, but could be worse:

"Prospects for Republicans in the 2008 election here at home look grim. The political environment isn't as bad as it was in 2006 when Republicans lost both houses of Congress and a lot more. But it's close.

"The empirical evidence is well known. More than 80 percent of Americans believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction. Democrats have steadily maintained the 10 percentage point lead in voter preference they gained two years ago. And President Bush's job performance rating is stuck in the low 30s, a level of unpopularity that weakens the Republican case for holding the White House in 2008.

"There's another piece of polling data that is both intriguing and indicative. In a Wall Street Journal/NBC survey last month, John McCain fared better with Republican voters (84 percent to 8 percent) than Barack Obama did with Democrats (78 percent to 12 percent). McCain was also stronger than Obama among independent voters (46 percent to 35 percent)."

So why is McCain still trailing? "The explanation for this seeming paradox is quite simple: The Republican base has shrunk. In 2008, there are fewer Republicans . . . The surge of American troops in Iraq hasn't turned the war into a Republican asset, but it's at least blunted it as an effective Democratic talking point."

I always figured working for a Webby operation meant lots of freedom. But Politico wants to establish a sort-of dress code! Fishbowl DC has a memo from Jim VandeHei:

"That's right, guys: no more unbuttoned shirts to sport your beastly chests, no more flipflops to sport your gangly toenails and no more wrinkled shirts yanked from beneath your bed.

"I thought it was only me bothered by it but when I announced this to a huge sampling of Politicos they erupted in wild applause (I believe Lisa Lerer even hooted standing atop her chair).

"I am not asking you to wear a monogrammed shirt and tie every day. But we are professionals, so let's all use some common sense and dress like it. Socks would be nice, too."

I'd fit right in there: I'm a big believer in wearing socks!