Obama, McCain Aim to Curb '527s'

Obama's campaign has used Black's own words to set the parameters of debate, offering up his statement on March 14 that "What Senator McCain has said repeatedly is that these candidates cannot be held accountable for all the views of people who endorse them or people who befriend them."

"What we're seeing right now is a good basketball coach trying to pre-influence the referee, in this case the public through the media, on what should or should not be allowed," said John Weaver, a long-time McCain associate who is no longer with his campaign.

That message has chilled fundraising and has appeared to slow down some groups hoping to be major players in the general election. Tom Matzzie, a leader of the liberal group MoveOn.org, teamed recently with David Brock, once a conservative journalist who is now a liberal media critic, to form Progressive Media USA, pledging to raise $40 million and lead the attack on McCain. The group has yet to air an ad.

Conservative organizations say their donors have had no direct contact from the McCain campaign or its surrogates, but Republican operatives such as David Bosse and LaCivita, who have promised to hit Democrats hard, have so far been silent.

Instead, what operatives have seen is the firing of an Obama adviser, Samantha Power, for calling Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) "a monster," and the sacking of McCain's convention chief, Douglas M. Goodyear, after his past ties to the military junta in Burma came to light.

Scott Reed, who managed Republican candidate Robert J. Dole's campaign in 1996, said those signals have been extraordinary -- and for good reason. Personal attacks such as George H.W. Bush's tarring of Michael S. Dukakis in 1988 as a weak-kneed, unpatriotic liberal may work when times are good, but in an election year marked by economic recession, an unpopular war and an unpopular president, the candidate waging a frivolous campaign could face a backlash.

"If we Republicans think we're going to win by dusting off the Dukakis game plan in this environment, we're headed for big trouble," Weaver said. "Conversely, if Obama allows the debate to be about whatever [Democratic Party Chairman] Howard Dean and his minions want, they're headed for a much closer race than it should be."

The leaders of independent groups on both sides strongly disagree.

"If people think for one minute that Republicans need to wage this campaign with one hand tied behind their back, they're wrong," LaCivita said.

An officer of a Democratic-leaning group said it is up to organizations such as his to make sure people who will never vote for Obama hear messages to make McCain unacceptable as well.

"There are different parts of your brain that process positive and negative messages," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of running afoul of the complicated tax regulations that govern his group. "It's important not to leave negative associations off the table."

And they still may have their chance to weigh in. Black noted that no one had heard of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth until deep into the summer of 2004, when the group seemingly came out of nowhere.

"It's not in our makeup to stand there and get punched in the face and see our people get punched in the face and not respond," LaCivita warned. "It's only a matter of time."

Washingtonpost.com staff writer Chris Cillizza contributed to this report.