Republicans Can Put a Twist in Transportation Dance

RICHMOND As lawmakers prepare to head back to town next month to try to resolve how to finance transportation projects, it is looking increasingly like the special session might repeat of the pattern of the past two years.

That pattern goes something like this: Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D), backed by some Democratic lawmakers, pushes a big tax increase. House Republicans, most of whom have little connection to heavily congested Northern Virginia, kill the proposal. Lawmakers leave town knowing full well it's only a matter of time before they return to repeat the entire exercise.

But House Republicans might be taking a risk.

With a presidential election this year and a gubernatorial race next year, House Republicans might not be able to afford to leave the impression that they are skirting their obligation to make highways safer and less congested.

Although the tax issue cuts both ways in a high-stakes election, it could reinforce a perception by some Northern Virginians that the state GOP is out of touch with their needs.

Having lost five House seats in the past six months and with all 100 seats up for election in 2009, the GOP is going to need a way to get past this latest debate without being tagged as obstructionist on transportation.

For many Republicans, Kaine's calls for higher sales taxes and vehicle registration fees are not an option. If they support Kaine's plan, many GOP legislators open themselves up to a challenger from the right in the spring primary.

But there is a potentially politically safe option for House Republicans, one that could give them cover to oppose Kaine's tax plan.

They could try to push the issue back on the Democrats by advocating that it be put before the voters in a referendum this fall.

A referendum wouldn't go over well with many Democrats, especially one called for November. Because it is a presidential election year, there will be an influx of voters who don't pay close attention to state politics, and many of them will be hesitant to support new taxes.

And the tax issue has a way of bringing likely Republican-leaning voters to the polls, which could all but guarantee a victory in Virginia for Sen. John McCai n (Ariz.), the presumptive GOP presidential nominee.

At a news conference Monday to announce GOP opposition to Kaine's tax proposal, House Majority Leader H. Morgan Griffith (Salem) and Majority Whip M. Kirkland Cox (Colonial Heights) appeared to begin goading the governor into allowing the issue to be put to the citizens.