At Preakness, Big Brown Could Be Undone by 'Bounce'

Heavy Favorite Hopes to Avoid Succumbing to A Lack of Rest

BALTIMORE, May 16 -- Rick Dutrow stood well insulated in rain gear underneath the media tent next to the Pimlico stakes barn Friday morning, expressing his expectations for Big Brown in the Preakness Stakes as succinctly as possible.

"Full-blown confidence," Dutrow said.

Outside, along the shed row, Reade Baker, trainer of Kentucky Bear, appeared to be Dutrow's only rival willing to say the Kentucky Derby winner could be beaten.

"You're talking about a horse that ran well on a wet racetrack. Who knows about [Big Brown's] other races?" Baker said. "How good was the third-place horse in the Derby? If he wins, he'll be the best horse standing."

The 133rd running of the Grade I $1 million Preakness Stakes looks like a monolithic favorite and a blur of 11 comparatively undistinguished others signed up only to give the second leg of the Triple Crown the appearance of a competitive horse race.

Yet as his commanding 1-2 morning-line odds illustrate, Big Brown enters with crushing expectations, and Dutrow has shown in the two weeks between the Derby and the Preakness that there is plenty of reason for caution.

The biggest concern is what people in racing call "the bounce," a term that applies to a horse who has run the best race of his career and returns to the track without sufficient rest between races.

The Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May is the first time 3-year-olds are asked to run a demanding 1 1/4 miles, and Big Brown delivered what many called one of the finest performances ever in the race and also became the first horse since 1915 to win it off just three career starts.

Running the 1 3/16 -mile Preakness just two weeks later is taxing for any horse, and only one other runner, Gayego, has returned from the Derby to try Big Brown.

Accordingly, Dutrow has had Big Brown on an exceedingly light schedule in the interim, with only light gallops and jogs in the mornings.

"I had no plans to breeze him after the Derby," Dutrow said when asked about the possibility of a speed workout. He did, however, leave the door open to the possibility of a short blowout, or open run, in the morning before the race.

Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito, who runs long shot Stevil in the Preakness, is keenly aware Big Brown could bounce.