At Preakness, Big Brown Could Be Undone by 'Bounce'
Heavy Favorite Hopes to Avoid Succumbing to A Lack of Rest

By John Scheinman
Special to The Washington Post
Saturday, May 17, 2008

BALTIMORE, May 16 -- Rick Dutrow stood well insulated in rain gear underneath the media tent next to the Pimlico stakes barn Friday morning, expressing his expectations for Big Brown in the Preakness Stakes as succinctly as possible.

"Full-blown confidence," Dutrow said.

Outside, along the shed row, Reade Baker, trainer of Kentucky Bear, appeared to be Dutrow's only rival willing to say the Kentucky Derby winner could be beaten.

"You're talking about a horse that ran well on a wet racetrack. Who knows about [Big Brown's] other races?" Baker said. "How good was the third-place horse in the Derby? If he wins, he'll be the best horse standing."

The 133rd running of the Grade I $1 million Preakness Stakes looks like a monolithic favorite and a blur of 11 comparatively undistinguished others signed up only to give the second leg of the Triple Crown the appearance of a competitive horse race.

Yet as his commanding 1-2 morning-line odds illustrate, Big Brown enters with crushing expectations, and Dutrow has shown in the two weeks between the Derby and the Preakness that there is plenty of reason for caution.

The biggest concern is what people in racing call "the bounce," a term that applies to a horse who has run the best race of his career and returns to the track without sufficient rest between races.

The Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May is the first time 3-year-olds are asked to run a demanding 1 1/4 miles, and Big Brown delivered what many called one of the finest performances ever in the race and also became the first horse since 1915 to win it off just three career starts.

Running the 1 3/16 -mile Preakness just two weeks later is taxing for any horse, and only one other runner, Gayego, has returned from the Derby to try Big Brown.

Accordingly, Dutrow has had Big Brown on an exceedingly light schedule in the interim, with only light gallops and jogs in the mornings.

"I had no plans to breeze him after the Derby," Dutrow said when asked about the possibility of a speed workout. He did, however, leave the door open to the possibility of a short blowout, or open run, in the morning before the race.

Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito, who runs long shot Stevil in the Preakness, is keenly aware Big Brown could bounce.

"Rick is training a certain way to keep some energy in there," Zito said. "He's obviously concerned about the bounce. He's doing what he thinks he can do to save energy. Why would he train him hard?"

Dutrow would like nothing more in the Preakness than for Big Brown to find another modest pace to track -- similar to the one Bob Black Jack set in Kentucky -- and for jockey Kent Desormeaux to sail by easily and into the winner's circle, especially because the 1 1/2 -mile Belmont Stakes looms three weeks away with a potential Triple Crown on the line.

"I've been dreaming [about a Triple Crown], but we've got to get this done before we get to Belmont," Dutrow said. "We're going after this thing with everything we've got. If Kent's on an easy lead at the eighth pole, I know he'll save something for the next race, but if he's got to get down on his belly because someone's making him run, he will."

Big Brown has proven to be the fastest horse in the field, although Arkansas Derby winner Gayego, a troubled 17th at Churchill Downs, and Tres Borrachos, third in Arkansas, possess abundant speed.

Tres Borrachos, who cost just $7,000 at auction, is the most likely to go right to the front when the gate opens, with Big Brown, Gayego and Kentucky Bear stalking and the others falling in behind.

"He runs well on the dirt, and he improves every race," Tres Borrachos' trainer Beau Greely said. "He's put on weight [since the Arkansas Derby on April 12], muscled out and toned up a little bit. Seeing him do it while going back and forth to California has been like watching one of your kids grow."

Dutrow, meantime, has felt the butterflies in his stomach grow. Throughout the past week, he has said he wished the days would dwindle as quickly as possible, and he has tried to occupy his mind by talking to assistants in New York and watching TV. Asked if he was uptight, he offered a typically clipped answer.

"I think so, but no one can tell," he said.