By Chris Cillizza and Shailagh Murray
Sunday, May 18, 2008; A08

The special-election victory by Democrat Travis Childers last week sent a signal to all political junkies that the House playing field may be far wider than most assumed even a few weeks ago. Childers's win in a northern Mississippi district that President Bush carried with 62 percent of the vote in 2004 came less than two weeks after a Democrat won a Louisiana special election in a district where Bush had taken 59 percent in his reelection bid.

With the winds of change blowing directly into Republicans' faces, here is a look at a handful of GOP-controlled seats that could feel the effects. Bush's 2004 vote percentage is in parentheses.

· Alabama's 2nd (67 percent): On paper, Democrats have absolutely no business competing in this southeastern Alabama district that Bush won by 34 percentage points in 2004. But Democrats scored a major recruiting coup when they persuaded Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright to run. Bright is extremely well-known in the district and is a social conservative -- making him tough to tie to the national Democratic Party. Bright's meager fundraising take -- $54,000 through March 31 -- is of some concern, however.

· Louisiana's 4th (59 percent): The retirement of Rep. Jim McCrery (R) from this western Louisiana seat caused little initial concern for Republicans, but the emergence of well-regarded Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche as the Democratic candidate has made the race much more interesting. Republicans have several candidates running, but none of them carries the name identification or political chops of Carmouche.

· Maryland's 1st (62 percent): Once state Sen. Andrew Harris upset longtime Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in the Republican primary, it appeared as though Harris would coast into Congress in the fall. But Democrats recruited a solid candidate in Queen Anne County Attorney Frank Kratovil, and Harris must still find a way to deal with lingering bitterness from Gilchrest backers.

· Missouri's 9th (59 percent): Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R), who has been forever mentioned as a statewide candidate, finally took the plunge and left his northeastern Missouri seat to run for governor. Both parties have crowded primaries. Missouri Democrats -- led by Sen. Claire McCaskill -- have more effectively courted rural voters in recent elections. This seat will serve as a test of how far they have come.

· New Mexico's 2nd (58 percent): This southern New Mexico district runs the length of the state, making communicating with voters a huge challenge. The last time the district seat came open was in 2002, when Rep. Steve Pearce (R), who is running for the Senate, won a crowded primary and beat a lackluster Democratic nominee. Republicans are currently tearing each other apart in advance of the June 3 primary, raising the possibility that the eventual nominee might be battered enough to provide Democrats an opening.

The Democratic playbook isn't entirely without its glitches this year. Consider what could happen in Oregon on Tuesday.

Democratic Senate leaders were thrilled to recruit state House Speaker Jeff Merkley to run against incumbent GOP Sen. Gordon Smith. Merkley is the son of a Roseburg, Ore., sawmill worker, and he had worked for the Pentagon and Habitat for Humanity before launching a successful Oregon House career.

But Merkley had a primary opponent, Steve Novick. And Novick was no ordinary primary opponent. He dropped out of junior high and went straight to college, entered Harvard Law School at age 18 and served as Justice Department lead counsel in the Love Canal environmental disaster case when he was in his early 30s. He moved to Oregon and became an ace Democratic activist.

Novick also was born with disabilities. He uses a hook for his missing left hand and stands 4-foot-9 because he is missing bones in both of his legs. He calls himself "the fighter with the hard left hook," and he has made the hook the punch line in a political ad, using it to open a beer for a voter in a bar.

In a Portland Tribune poll released last week, Novick led Merkley by 29 percent to 23 percent among likely Democratic voters -- with 43 percent of the voters still undecided. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has viewed Novick as the weaker general-election candidate, and they're worried he's going to pull an upset against their chosen candidate.

Smith -- who has run ads against both his potential rivals -- said he is "agnostic" on the outcome. "We've always assumed Merkley would win. He's been pounding me for a year," Smith said.

But he gave Novick "a very good chance" of prevailing. "He's run a much more exciting campaign," he said.

FIVE DAYS: Sen. John McCain plans to release his medical records and allow reporters to ask follow-up questions of his doctors about his health. McCain's age has been and will continue to be an underlying current of discussion in the campaign; a clean bill of health over the past eight years would go a long way toward pushing it to the back burner.

16 DAYS: Montana and South Dakota will cast the final votes of the Democratic primary season -- officially ending one of the most compelling races in modern political history.

PLAYERS

Stephanie Schriock, a highly regarded Democratic operative, is returning to her home state of Minnesota to manage the Senate candidacy of entertainer Al Franken (D), who is challenging Sen. Norm Coleman (R) this fall. Schriock, a Mankato native, made a name for herself in 2006 when she guided state Sen. Jon Tester (D) to an upset victory over Sen. Conrad Burns (R-Mont.). Before her work with Tester, Schriock served as finance director for former Vermont governor Howard Dean's 2004 presidential bid and also spent several years with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.