Orioles Defying Expectations

Baltimore Is Three Games Over .500

Before the Baltimore Orioles even set foot on a field this season, members of the front office took advantage of every chance to warn fans that a rocky season might lie ahead. And team president Andy MacPhail's trades of Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard for unproven prospects only underscored the warning.

Instead, at 23-20, the Orioles have achieved more than merely avoiding laughingstock status; they've been respectable.

According to the Pythagorean winning percentage formula -- a statistic based on a team's run differential -- the Orioles should be a game under .500. The stat is designed as a measure of a full season, yet small sample size notwithstanding, the Orioles stand three games over .500 despite being outscored by five runs.

While the Orioles' unofficial theme song may offer a clue -- the team has adopted the familiar, old "Oriole Magic" -- the explanation for why the Orioles have defied expectations may be far more fundamental.

"It all comes down to pitching," Orioles designated hitter Aubrey Huff said. "Even last year, I think we scored about the same amount of runs [as] this year. Really, I don't even know, it doesn't seem that much different. But the pitching sure seems different, especially out of the bullpen."

In much the same way that a hot goalie in hockey can determine a team's fortunes, the same can be said of a hot closer. Enter lefty George Sherrill, an overlooked piece of the Bedard trade who has been a revelation as the closer. Since winning the job in spring training, Sherrill has saved 17 games in 19 tries, tied for the major league lead.

"A closer who's hot or dominant can oftentimes make a difference with a team like that, that is not a major run-producing club," Orioles bench coach Dave Jauss said.

Sherrill's strong start has helped the Orioles go 17-1 when leading after seven innings. Further proof of the bullpen's effectiveness is the team's 11-6 record in one-run games; the Orioles were 13-31 in that category in 2007.

"When our pitching is going the way they are, good things are going to happen," right fielder Nick Markakis said. "Starting pitching is giving us anywhere from five to seven innings and our bullpen is unbelievable right now."

Starters Daniel Cabrera, Brian Burres and Garrett Olson are all in the midst of career-best stretches, with each pitching well below his career ERAs entering the season, and Jeremy Guthrie has been as steady as expected atop the rotation.

Still, Jauss said, the answer goes beyond just strong pitching.

"I hate to pick out just pitching," he said. "The reason pitching does well is because the catcher is calling a good game and has got the pace, the defense has been tremendous, the corners of the infield have been tremendous. [Melvin] Mora and [Kevin] Millar have been great."

Mora has been active at third base while Millar has been steady picking balls out of the dirt at first. Both have contributed to the Orioles' defensive resurgence. Entering play on Sunday, the Orioles led the majors in defensive efficiency [.728] and their 25 errors put them among baseball's top 10 mistake-free clubs.

But another factor in the Orioles' run may be simple luck.

Baltimore has turned two-out rallies into common occurrences and mounted sudden rallies in games in which the offense had been in hibernation for innings at a time -- all characteristics that can be filed under the heading "timely hitting."

Orioles Manager Dave Trembley admits that his club has seen its share of good fortune, though not enough to completely explain why his club entered play yesterday just 2 1/2 games behind division-leading Boston. Besides, he said, his team has made its own luck, too.

"The game is such that it swings in both directions and sometimes it's at opportune times and sometimes it's not at the best of times," Trembley said. "The game is such that when it goes in your favor, it goes in your favor hard for a while. But I still think it goes in your favor because of a lot of other things that you do in order to put yourself in position to allow those things to occur."