Memorial Day Travel Likely To Hit 1st Dip Since 9/11

Fewer Washington area residents are expected to hit the roads and skies this Memorial Day weekend, as travel over the holiday is predicted to drop for the first time since Sept. 11, 2001. Blame skyrocketing gas prices, costly airfares and worries about a recession, analysts said.

AAA Mid-Atlantic predicts that 12 percent of Washington area residents will travel 50 miles or more from home this weekend, about 1 percent fewer than last year.

"The drop is not surprising, given the price of gasoline," said John Townsend, a AAA spokesman. "It's proof positive that $4 a gallon is a psychological and financial barrier."

The decline in travel would mark a reversal. "Since 9/11, travel had been trending upward," Townsend said, and it had risen steadily since the terrorist attacks.

Diesel is selling for an average of $4.52 a gallon nationwide, as are premium grades and many mid-grades. Townsend said that self-serve regular, which AAA uses as a benchmark, has crossed the $4 mark in two states, Alaska and Connecticut, but that more will probably join them soon. In the Washington area, the average price for self-serve regular is $3.82 a gallon.

Car rental rates are also up sharply; consumers are paying an average of $45 per day, compared with $31 a year ago, an increase of 45 percent.

Passenger traffic at Baltimore-Washington International Marshall Airport is expected to be down 3.5 percent this weekend compared with Memorial Day weekend last year, airport spokesman Jonathan Dean said. BWI set travel records in 2006 and 2007. Dulles International and Reagan National airports do not make predictions for the three-day weekend.

Airfares are up about 8 percent, according to AAA Mid-Atlantic. Airlines are being squeezed by the increase in jet fuel prices, and many are responding by tacking on fees and charging for extra baggage.

American Airlines announced yesterday that beginning June 15, it will charge $15 each way for one checked bag for travelers with domestic economy-class tickets. The airline had begun charging $25 for a second bag this month. Expect planes to be crowded as airlines try to maximize capacity.

But Americans' economic worries have spread beyond the gas pump and ticket counter.

TNS, a global market research company, said that one in four Americans has canceled or curbed travel plans this year. According to the research, 84 percent blamed the cost of fuel, 36 percent cited recession worries and a third cited the decreasing value of the dollar. Other reasons cited included worries about job security and mortgage payments. The group polled 2,500 people last month.

Count the Espy family of Temple Hills among those who will be hanging out at home during the long weekend.