By Eric M. Weiss
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Fewer Washington area residents are expected to hit the roads and skies this Memorial Day weekend, as travel over the holiday is predicted to drop for the first time since Sept. 11, 2001. Blame skyrocketing gas prices, costly airfares and worries about a recession, analysts said.
AAA Mid-Atlantic predicts that 12 percent of Washington area residents will travel 50 miles or more from home this weekend, about 1 percent fewer than last year.
"The drop is not surprising, given the price of gasoline," said John Townsend, a AAA spokesman. "It's proof positive that $4 a gallon is a psychological and financial barrier."
The decline in travel would mark a reversal. "Since 9/11, travel had been trending upward," Townsend said, and it had risen steadily since the terrorist attacks.
Diesel is selling for an average of $4.52 a gallon nationwide, as are premium grades and many mid-grades. Townsend said that self-serve regular, which AAA uses as a benchmark, has crossed the $4 mark in two states, Alaska and Connecticut, but that more will probably join them soon. In the Washington area, the average price for self-serve regular is $3.82 a gallon.
Car rental rates are also up sharply; consumers are paying an average of $45 per day, compared with $31 a year ago, an increase of 45 percent.
Passenger traffic at Baltimore-Washington International Marshall Airport is expected to be down 3.5 percent this weekend compared with Memorial Day weekend last year, airport spokesman Jonathan Dean said. BWI set travel records in 2006 and 2007. Dulles International and Reagan National airports do not make predictions for the three-day weekend.
Airfares are up about 8 percent, according to AAA Mid-Atlantic. Airlines are being squeezed by the increase in jet fuel prices, and many are responding by tacking on fees and charging for extra baggage.
American Airlines announced yesterday that beginning June 15, it will charge $15 each way for one checked bag for travelers with domestic economy-class tickets. The airline had begun charging $25 for a second bag this month. Expect planes to be crowded as airlines try to maximize capacity.
But Americans' economic worries have spread beyond the gas pump and ticket counter.
TNS, a global market research company, said that one in four Americans has canceled or curbed travel plans this year. According to the research, 84 percent blamed the cost of fuel, 36 percent cited recession worries and a third cited the decreasing value of the dollar. Other reasons cited included worries about job security and mortgage payments. The group polled 2,500 people last month.
Count the Espy family of Temple Hills among those who will be hanging out at home during the long weekend.
"There's enough to do right here," S.Y. Espy said. Instead of hitting the road, she and her family plan to plant some zucchini and bell peppers in the yard and have a family barbecue with hot dogs and her secret-recipe chicken.
Others say time with family is more precious than the price of self-serve regular. That's why gas prices are not stopping the Rice family from going canoeing in West Virginia.
"Not for this trip; it's within reasonable distance," said Len Rice, a veterinarian who lives in Chantilly.
Although more people are expected to stay home this year, the Memorial Day weekend is still a major travel time. More than 12 percent of Americans will be celebrating away from home, according to AAA.
Travelers are escaping high fuel prices in part by looking at alternatives such as Amtrak. Ridership is up 10.6 percent this fiscal year, and the company expects an increase in passengers this weekend.
"We have been attributing the increase to the price of gasoline," said Karina Romero, an Amtrak spokeswoman.
With gas prices rising, automotive industry groups have resorted to something few might think necessary in the United States: the marketing of driving.
According to the "Be Car Care Aware" campaign, supported by the Car Care Council, a coalition of auto-parts suppliers, driving allows you to "leave when you want from where you want" and "pack whatever and as much as you want." And unlike flying, there is no waiting in ticket counter and security lines, no weather delays, more meal options and "no strangers sitting next to you."
According to the council, even if gas hits $5 a gallon, it would still be cheaper for a family of four to drive to a vacation destination than fly: For a 1,000-mile round trip, it would cost $343 to travel in a sport-utility vehicle, compared with $1,324 to fly.
"Even with gas prices considerably higher than last year, the cost of driving is a much better deal compared with going by air," said Rich White, executive director of the council.
To help those who are planning to get away this weekend, area roadwork will generally be suspended. On the Chesapeake Bay Bridge, most of the steel plates on the westbound span will be removed, and redecking work will be suspended for the summer, according to the Maryland Transportation Authority.
When passing a traffic incident, drivers are reminded to pull over to the next lane whenever possible.
And, as always, a reminder to air travelers: All liquids, gels and aerosols in carry-on bags must be in three-ounce or smaller containers and must be packed in one quart-size clear plastic bag with a zip top.
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