By Michael Wilbon
Thursday, May 22, 2008

BOSTON

You keep thinking, as Ray Allen does, that his next shot is going in. They went in when he played at U-Conn., when he played for the Milwaukee Bucks, when he played for the Seattle SuperSonics. They went in at a higher rate and with greater volume in the playoffs than in the regular season. You keep thinking, as Ray Allen does, that he can't keep shooting bricks and air balls because he has been one of the NBA's great jump shooters for the past dozen years. You keep figuring Allen's going to break out of this marathon shooting slump soon because this is the best chance he has had to play for a championship and the Boston Celtics are so much better off with Ray Allen playing like Ray Allen.

But the misses just keep on coming, one after another, one night after another, now one series after another. It doesn't even look like Allen shooting. The shot is too flat. It's rushed. Most times the ball is not even in the cylinder. The most stylish shooter of his era, the man who starred as a youngster in the movie "He Got Game" as the prolific recruit Jesus Shuttlesworth is so off his game that it's impossible to ignore the topic even though his team is up 1-0 on the Detroit Pistons in the Eastern Conference finals.

It grows golf course quiet in the new Garden every time Allen shoots now, as if a polite silence will help him find his stroke. Nobody wants to boo or jump to ridicule Allen because he has been too good, too good a teammate, too good a player, too admirable a public figure. But the silence is screaming, "Oh my God, what's happened to Ray Allen?"

"They're wondering why it's not going in," he said the other day, "just like I am." Before practice Wednesday he told reporters, "I think personally, it's been tougher than anything I've ever seen."

It's hard to imagine the Celtics winning a championship unless Allen finds his jump shot. It's hard to see the Celtics breaking through on the road if Allen continues to have single-digit scoring nights. Remember, Allen was the No. 2 man in the Big Three that brought the Celtics their great reversal of fortune.

We're talking about a man who averaged 23, 23.9, 25.1 and 26.4 points per game in the four years leading up to this season. We're talking about a player who averaged 24 points per game on 47 percent shooting in his first 37 career playoff games now averaging 12.5 points per game on 38 percent shooting in 15 playoff games this postseason.

The last three games, Allen has missed 17 of 24 shots. In Game 1 against the Pistons, he was 3 of 10. He was 1 for 6 in Game 7 against Cleveland, 3 for 8 the game before that, 4 for 11 the game before that, and missed 8 of 9 three-pointers in those three games. He has missed 32 of his last 38 three-pointers.

With a 10-3 lead Tuesday night in Game 1, the Celtics went out of their way to find Allen on a fast break, getting him the ball for a wide-open three-pointer. Air ball.

It's painful to watch because Allen works so diligently, make that obsessively, at being a great shooter and has for his entire career. The air ball was symbolic of what's happened, or failed to happen lately. "I got to the point," Allen told reporters Tuesday night, "that I had taken that shot thousands of times and I had a great feeling because I felt free -- more free than I had felt. The way the game was flowing, I had a great rhythm and I guess I was so amped and ready to go. So it's good to get those shots because now I am developing my rhythm again."

Allen, developing? Wow.

Okay, so what's actually happened?

There are a handful of theories, two of which make more sense than the others.

First, and quite plausibly, Allen knew he had to give up some of his offense to make it work with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. In Boston, Allen simply isn't going to have the ball all the time the way he did in Seattle, where Rashard Lewis was second banana, and in Milwaukee, where "Big Dog" Robinson gave way to Allen. The offensive sacrifice was necessary to make it work in Boston, but Allen never got into a groove, averaging only 17.4 points per game in the regular season.

Another explanation: Allen's getting old. He is 32. As one former NBA coach told me this week, recent ankle injuries have simply diminished Allen's ability to rise up and shoot his jumper the way he has all these years. "Guys like Dell Curry and Jon Barry could shoot until they were 60 years old," the coach said. "They never jumped. Their shots weren't dependent on rise. Ray's is. He's so dependent on his legs and his lift to shoot and it could be gone, with the injuries and age and pounding over the years."

What rings true about that second theory is that Allen has hit 35 of 36 foul shots in the playoffs, so that would suggest there's nothing wrong with his eye. Free throws don't require lift.

The question was put to Coach Doc Rivers on Wednesday, the question everybody in New England is asking. You can't take a walk to the corner store without hearing somebody ask it. Rivers, as a good coach should, essentially took one for the team when he said that Allen was being tightly covered, sometimes double-teamed, and has been moving the ball to open teammates like an unselfish veteran should. "We have to get him more touches in better rhythm," Rivers said.

Sounds nice. As long as the Celtics keep winning, it's an issue that can be deferred -- a little bit. "I'm taking what they're giving me," Allen said. "We have enough players here where I don't have to score 30 for us to win. Trust me, that's a refreshing feeling, knowing that it all isn't on me."