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Blu-ray Awaits Its Spoils
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While many home theater fans are skeptical that digital files and download service could ever replace optical media such as the DVD or Blu-ray discs, Gartenberg pointed to products and services such as AppleTV and on-demand services from cable companies as examples of how consumers have more options than they did when the DVD made its debut.
Just this week, DVD rental service Netflix and device manufacturer Roku created much buzz with a new product they have devised that will make movies available through a download.
Another hurdle facing Blu-ray, analysts say, is the fact that many DVD players can use sophisticated software to improve the quality of the picture to near-high definition. View the pictures of an "upconverted" DVD next to that from a Blu-ray, and it's still easy to tell the difference, "but for most consumers who will never see the two side by side, it's good enough," Gartenberg said.
Today, about 35 percent of DVD players sold are able to upconvert, according to ABI Research. The firm estimates that figure should be about 60 percent by 2013.
To help build excitement for the Blu-ray format, some studios are including new features that they hope will spark interest among consumers.
A new wave of Blu-ray players will connect to the Internet, opening up a new range of features that studios will be able to offer. Pop in an upcoming Blu-ray release of "Sleeping Beauty," for example, and the main menu will feature an image of the movie's castle. Thanks to the Internet connection, if it's raining at your house in Arlington, the Blu-ray software will produce rain on the castle on your TV. For its recent release "Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story," Sony has been giving Blu-ray owners access to downloadable extra features that the studio didn't have time to include on the disc.
There's a catch, though: Not all Blu-ray players will be able to take advantage of the new features that Web connectivity allows.
With that in mind, ABI Research analyst Steve Wilson said it is just as well for consumers if they don't jump on the Blu-ray bandwagon yet. Wilson said he expects Blu-ray players to drop to $250 by this holiday season and $200 by the end of 2009. That's when he expects mainstream adoption of the movie format to catch on.
"We're still at the very early stage," he said. "The players don't even support all the features yet."
