Virginia Is Up For Grabs In Fall

U.S. Rep. Robert C. Scott (D-Va.) noted that Obama drew 18,000 at a rally in Virginia Beach a few days before the primary. "That is the basis for a very strong grass-roots organization," Scott said. "If everyone who showed up just put in a couple hours, that would certainly be a very vigorous ground operation."

In Northern Virginia, Obama will be trying to replicate the success of Kaine and U.S. Sen. James Webb (D) in getting about 60 percent of the vote in Fairfax County, where as many as a half-million people could turn out on Election Day. One in seven Virginia residents lives in Fairfax, which Bush lost by 6 percentage points in 2004.

In Arlington County, where Kaine and Webb received nearly three-quarters of the vote in their races, Democrats are hoping Warner and Obama can get 80 percent of the vote this year.

"I think the cards are aligning just right to pull this off," said Peter Rousselot, chairman of the Arlington County Democratic Committee, noting that 83 percent of the Arlington residents who voted in the Feb. 12 primary asked for a Democratic ballot. "A big, heavy registration drive is ongoing right now."

James E. Hyland, chairman of the Fairfax County Republican Committee, predicts Democrats will fall short of their targets in Northern Virginia because of McCain's military background and his moderate stances on some issues.

"Republicans have come to realize he is the best type of candidate we can nominate," said Hyland, who plans to start contacting the 100,000 Fairfax residents he thinks are open to supporting either McCain or Obama.

Sabato, who noted that past Democratic presidential candidates have abandoned the state by the fall, said he expects both political parties to be at the top of their game this year.

"It is not as if Republicans are just going to sit on their hands and say, 'Isn't that interesting, Obama is mobilizing young people and African Americans,' " said Sabato, who thinks Obama faces an uphill battle in Virginia. "Mobilization begets counter-mobilization."