GOP Convention Might Offer Insights

RICHMOND

Thousands of party activists will converge on the Greater Richmond Convention Center this weekend for the state Republican convention.

Republicans will select their nominee for the race to fill the seat of retiring Sen. John W. Warner (R). They will also elect a party chairman and delegates to the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis.

The convention will offer insight into the future direction of the party and clues into upcoming state and federal elections. Here are 15 questions the convention might help to answer. You can check back next week to find out the answers.

1. Can former governor James S. Gilmore III fend off Del. Robert G. Marshall for the U.S. Senate nomination?

Gilmore all but declared victory last month over Marshall (R-Prince William), saying he was confident he received a majority of the delegates needed to win. But Marshall, who is running because Gilmore supports abortion rights until the eighth week of pregnancy, is predicting an upset because, he says, his supporters are more energized.

2. If Gilmore wins, how big will his margin be?

Because Mark R. Warner, the Democratic Senate candidate and former governor, is favored to win in the fall, Gilmore can't afford to head into the general election with weak support among Republicans. If Gilmore defeats Marshall by a narrow margin, questions will be raised about whether he has what it takes to make his race against Warner competitive. A 60 percent to 40 percent win over Marshall would be a respectable showing for Gilmore, who has outspent Marshall 16 to 1. If Gilmore's margin is even larger, he will have had a very good weekend.

3. How many supporters of Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul will attend the convention?

Enamored with his libertarian views and opposition to the war in Iraq, Paul supporters had a vocal presence at many county and district Republican conventions this spring. They have been vowing to turn out in large numbers at the state convention in hopes of getting Paul a few Virginia delegates to the national convention. If they succeed, it could foreshadow an interesting sideshow at the national convention because similar efforts are taking place in other states.

4. What kind of reception will Arizona Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, receive?