'You've Got to Be Lucky'

Kent Desormeaux, Big Brown's jockey, has been blamed for moving too soon in the Belmont on Real Quiet in 1998. (By John Mcdonnell -- The Washington Post)
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Real Quiet collared the two tiring leaders and opened up a sizable advantage in the stretch. Track announcer Tom Durkin, however, saw what was developing, picking up Victory Gallop's gathering momentum on the outside:

"Twenty years in the waiting! One furlong to go, but here comes his rival, Victory Gallop, as they come to the final sixteenth. Kent Desormeaux imploring Real Quiet to hold on. Victory Gallop, a final surge . . . "

The two crossed the line, an inseparable blur. Had Real Quiet won, Baffert and company would have collected a $5 million bonus then offered by Visa for sweeping the Triple Crown.

"Kent Desormeaux, everybody wants to blame him," Baffert said. "You can't get mad at Kent Desormeaux. Maybe he should have waited, but how can I get mad at a guy who won the Kentucky Derby for me on a horse I bought for $17,000 with my best friend?"

Hall of Fame rider Jerry Bailey, now an analyst for ESPN, said Real Quiet was the culprit in the race, but that Desormeaux should have been better attuned to the horse's tendencies.

"Real Quiet eased himself up; he quit running hard," Bailey said. "A lot of horses will do that if they don't have a target to run at. If you know that about a horse, you have to adjust your move accordingly. You don't want to get the lead too soon."

Bailey, like Baffert, has been a central figure in a tale of Triple Crown woe, but cast as a villain.

In 2004, Smarty Jones was the toast of horse racing after sweeping the Derby and Preakness. In the Belmont, however, Bailey, aboard Eddington, and Alex Solis, on Rock Hard Ten, were in no mood to lovingly escort Smarty Jones to the winner's circle. From the opening bell, they pushed and prodded and pressed, and Smarty Jones, under jockey Stewart Elliott, ran faster and faster to get away. He vanquished those rivals through 1 1/4 miles in a blazing 2 minutes 1 second, but there was still a quarter-mile to go.

Despite a clear lead, along came a plodder named Birdstone to gobble up exhausted Smarty Jones, who had never been beaten before, in the final strides.

"Jerry called me afterward, and we talked," said John Servis, who trained Smarty Jones. "He told me his horse is lazy, and that's why he did it. I said: 'You're a very good rider, and I've watched you ride a thousand times, and I've never seen you go to the stick that early in the race.' He said, 'I'm sorry you feel that way.' "

Bailey, too, knew he was going to get his share of phone calls this year and, as usual, prepared methodically.

"I watched the rerun about eight times yesterday," he said. "The matter of fact is, [Smarty Jones] went [a half-mile] in 48 3/5 seconds. I watched a dozen other Belmonts, and pressure was put on the lead horse at 48 and 3. It wasn't much different than other Belmonts."

Hall of Fame trainer Jack Van Berg has similar war stories to tell from 1987, when his Alysheba won the first two legs of the Triple Crown, only to finish fourth in the Belmont behind rival Bet Twice.

At 71, Van Berg has been taking the Triple Crown phone calls a lot longer than Baffert, and his perspective on the quest is simple and sage: "You've got to be lucky; it don't matter how damn smart you are," he said. "It looks like Big Brown has them over the barrel, and he's got the talent, but it's going to take a lot of praying. And you know what the difference between praying in church and praying at the racetrack is? At the racetrack you mean it."