'She Could Accept Losing. She Could Not Accept Quitting.'

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The Twists and Turns of The Clinton Campaign

The Post's Dan Balz assesses the final months of Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign.

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But the yelling matches were less frequent. "It's not a bad place to work anymore," one senior adviser said in late May, adding, with a wry smile: "Except we're losing."

Great Expectations

What happened in Indiana and North Carolina was a classic case of expectations getting away from the campaign. Obama had always been heavily favored in North Carolina because of the size of the state's African American vote. Indiana appeared to be more of a tossup, although the campaign's early polls showed Obama leading by eight or nine points.

Ace Smith had been sent to North Carolina after pulling off important victories in California and Texas. Robby Mook, who had earned the respect of the campaign for his work in Nevada and Ohio, was put in charge of Indiana.

In late March, the Clinton team gathered at the candidate's home in Northwest Washington, and there, according to several present, Smith offered an optimistic assessment of North Carolina. Smith declined to comment about what he said was a private meeting. But, he said, "we were cornered and we had to fight that battle, and when you go into fight a battle you'd better be optimistic or you're doomed to failure from the beginning."

Others did not begrudge Smith his determination to fight for all the resources he could muster from a team that believed the best outcome was holding Obama to a single-digit margin of victory. But the campaign's problems were compounded by the enthusiasm of the Clintons themselves, who thought they were making progress in the state. North Carolina, Hillary Clinton told an audience days before the primary, could be a "game-changer."

Nothing the campaign could say later could roll back her confidence.

What hurt her in North Carolina was a self-inflicted wound -- misstatements about a trip she took to Bosnia as first lady when, she claimed, her entourage had to dodge sniper fire upon their arrival.

A second factor may have been Wright, who, a week before the primary, reappeared for the first time since the controversial video was aired and repeated many of his most controversial views at the National Press Club. Obama, after a day of hesitation, denounced his former pastor and broke with him.

Conventional wisdom suggested that the second episode would crystallize opposition to Obama and help Clinton in North Carolina. In retrospect, Clinton advisers believe, it actually hardened Obama's support in the black community.

Hillary and Bill Clinton were optimistic as they approached primary day on May 6. They dipped once again into their personal fortune, lending her campaign $1.4 million more in the week before the Indiana and North Carolina votes. At least three campaign officials described the Clintons as furious when they saw the results in the two states.

Indiana proved to be the bigger disappointment, even though Clinton won there. What irked her advisers was that Clinton got no credit for what they saw as a come-from-behind victory. Even more irritating was that, because ballots were being held back in the Obama stronghold of Lake County, across the state line from his home town, Chicago, the networks declined to call the race for Clinton until after midnight.

The most effective phase of her campaign "came to a screeching halt the night of Indiana and North Carolina," said a senior aide. "The change was discernible almost immediately.