A Run for the Ages?

But when dramatic events occur, historians tend to look over their shoulders in search of a context -- antecedents whose significance was not so clear before the drama happened. Obama's success this year, said David Nasaw, 62, of the City University of New York, a historian writing a biography of JFK's father, Joseph P. Kennedy, culminates 20 years of change that Nasaw dates to September 1991.

"When Strom Thurmond ushered Clarence Thomas [then a nominee to become only the second black on the Supreme Court] and his white wife into the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing room . . that signaled that something was happening in American culture," Nasaw said. Thurmond, the long-serving senator from South Carolina who began his political career as an outspoken racist, was then the ranking Republican on the committee, and a staunch supporter of Thomas's confirmation.

Shelby Steele, 61, a fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, published a book about Obama late last year, "Bound Man: Why We Are Excited About Obama and Why He Can't Win." In an interview this week, Steele said he now regrets that subtitle -- "it's certainly possible that he could win" -- but he also predicted that Sen. John McCain would prevail in November. As to Obama's victory over Hillary Clinton (Steele earlier predicted that she would beat him), Steele said he was not surprised that a black man could win. "By the time these things happen, American society has rearranged itself. I've felt for some time that America was ready for this."

For Carter of the Yale law school, who is a novelist as well as a legal scholar, the context for Obama's success is an America where blacks have been enjoying unprecedented opportunities for some time. Two black secretaries of state, Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice, are evidence of that, Carter said. So were black chief executives of big financial institutions and corporations, mostly unheard of 20 years ago.

At the same time, Carter argued that "it's difficult to make the case that Obama excites people because he's black. The excitement that people feel about him, whether or not you think it's deserved, is precisely because he strikes people as someone who will transcend these easy classifications."

Nasaw of CUNY noted that Margaret Thatcher was elected Britain's first female prime minister in 1979. But she was a historically significant prime minister because her policies radically changed British life. Her gender has become relatively insignificant.

Older scholars seemed more cautious in their evaluations. Leon Litwack, 78, retired professor of history at the University of California at Berkeley and winner of the Pulitzer Prize for a book on the aftermath of slavery, said he had "strong doubts about whether the American people could really elect Obama. . . . There are still strong feelings about race in this country; it is still a very significant factor in American life. I think it still remains, in many respects, a racist society."

Obama's candidacy "could be a turning point," Litwack said. "I have rather conflicted opinions."

But others said that even a defeat in November could not undo the importance of what has already happened. "If you think in terms of these young white girls, young white men, old white girls and old white men" who are supporting Obama, said Franklin, "and you see what they're up to, and they're acting like this is a natural thing! It's really astounding."

Many of these scholars commented on their students' excitement about Obama. "There's an enthusiasm that I haven't seen before," said Nasaw, who speculated that the number of new voters who will support Obama in November could outnumber those who will vote against him for racial reasons. The enthusiasm of the students suggested that "the country has turned a corner," said Harvard Sitkoff, professor of history at the University of New Hampshire.

But no student could be more enthusiastic than John Hope Franklin. "My mother used to tell me when I was 6 years old [in 1921], when people ask you what you're going to be when you grow up, tell them you're going to be the first Negro president of the United States. I worked up the courage to say it a few times, talking through my hat or somebody else's hat. And now here's the fulfillment of it, in my lifetime!"

Research editor Alice Crites contributed to this report.