McCain Sets Sights on the Democrats Who Voted for Clinton

The point, key Republican advisers said, is that Clinton's voters see more of themselves in McCain than they do in Obama. In recent weeks, McCain advisers have shared data with Republican activists backing up that contention, said one Republican strategist.

McCain's speech Tuesday night contained a direct appeal to Clinton's voters, calling her a "friend" and saying that her presidential campaign inspired his own daughters and "millions of women to believe there is no opportunity in this great country beyond their reach."

In addition, they say they will stress the areas where McCain's positions are different from Bush's. In his speech Tuesday, McCain went out of his way to highlight his belief in global warming, his opposition to Bush's energy bill and his criticisms of the conduct of the war.

"The American people didn't get to know me yesterday," he said. Speaking as much about Clinton's supporters as his own, he added: "They know I have a long record of bipartisan problem-solving. They've seen me put our country before any president -- before any party -- before any special interest -- before my own interest."

McCain advisers believe the polls back up their predictions.

Over the past three months, Washington Post-ABC News polls showed an average of 25 percent of those backing Clinton in the primaries "defecting" to McCain in a hypothetical match-up with Obama. A new poll from the Pew Research Center conducted just before the final Democratic primaries put the number at 28 percent.

Other data in the new Pew poll may add to the concern among some Democrats. In that survey, the percentage of Clinton supporters holding a positive view of Obama continues to slide: Forty-five percent of them view Obama favorably, down from 58 percent in December, before the voting started.

The Clinton voters most open to switching sides this time in Post-ABC national data are white women, white voters without college degrees, older voters, moderates and those prioritizing experience over change. This is the most fertile territory for McCain to repeat the feat of one of McCain's heroes, Ronald Reagan.

Twenty-six percent of Democrats crossed party lines to vote for Reagan in 1980 after a bruising fight for the Democratic nomination between President Jimmy Carter and Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) -- a battle that lasted all the way to the convention.

But even that number was significantly lower than the threatened crossover from early that year. In a late March 1980 Gallup poll, 47 percent of Democrats who wanted Kennedy to be the party's nominee said they would vote for Reagan if Carter were to get the nod; that is nearly twice the proportion who ended up doing so.

McCain's challenge in converting disappointed Clinton supporters into GOP voters this year hinges on his ability to overcome policy differences and improve his image with those voters. In the Pew poll, most of those who hold favorable views of Clinton view Obama positively and McCain negatively. And it is the anti-McCain view that may ultimately prove a stronger motivator.

Nearly 6 in 10 of those backing Clinton over Obama in the primary said they would support Obama in the fall, with about half of those voters saying they are motivated to do so primarily to vote "against McCain" rather than "for Obama."

Cohen reported from Washington. Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta in Washington contributed to this report.