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Appearances Put Virginia On the Map for November

Hillary Rodham Clinton officially suspended her campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination Saturday at a rally in Washington, DC. "The way to continue our fight now ... is to take our energy, our passion, our strength, and do all we can to help elect Barack Obama the next president of the United States," she told her supporters.
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"The one thing you've got to remember, Obama doesn't have to get all the white, working-class people in Virginia," said Dave "Mudcat" Saunders, a Roanoke-based Democratic strategist. "He's just got to clip off a few of them."

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Even if he comes up short on Election Day, Democrats say, Obama will force McCain to spend more time and money in Virginia, which could increase Obama's chances for success in other battleground states.

McCain, for his part, opened his Virginia headquarters in Pentagon City last month, and officials at the Republican National Committee said it plans to relocate additional staff resources into the state in the coming days.

Mike Henry, Warner's campaign manager, said the early signs are encouraging for Obama. Henry's analysis of the more than 100,000 newly registered voters this year in Virginia shows they "are younger and come from more suburban and urban areas" and "appear to be people who are going to participate in the election for Obama."

Obama beat Clinton in Virginia by almost 30 points, one of his largest margins of the primary season. More significantly, he won among groups that are key to establishing his crossover appeal. According to exit polls, he won white voters by 14 percentage points, drew strong backing among independents and prevailed with Hispanic voters, who broke for Clinton in almost every other state.

But Bush won Virginia by 262,000 votes four years ago -- more than eight percentage points -- and Republicans say there is little reason to think the underlying conservative nature of the state has changed. In 2004, almost 40 percent of Virginia's voters identified themselves as conservative, and 85 percent of those voted for Bush, according to exit polls.

"Virginia has grown, but you have not seen the kind of wholesale turnover in the state's population or growth rates that would allow someone to explain why a district that used to be 70 to 30 one way is suddenly going to be 30 to 70 the other way," said GOP strategist Alex Vogel.

Staff writer Shailagh Murray, traveling with the Obama campaign, contributed to this report.


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