Triple Crown Within Reach for Big Brown
By John Scheinman
Special to The Washington Post
Saturday, June 7, 2008
ELMONT, N.Y., June 6 -- Richard Dutrow Jr. stepped up to the microphones outside trainer Bobby Frankel's barn Friday morning to address a wall of media representatives looking as if he had just rolled out of a backyard hammock.
With his polo shirt untucked, khakis rumpled and the brim of a ball cap with a Triple Crown insignia pulled low, Dutrow hardly suggested he stood to become the first trainer to send out a horse who sweeps the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes in 30 years.
Until he opened his mouth.
Asked what advice he would give a jockey trying to upset the seemingly unbeatable Big Brown on Saturday, Dutrow showed his sharpness.
"Stay out of his way," he said.
The almost reckless confidence and braggadocio Dutrow has displayed since before the Kentucky Derby remained in full flower before the 140th Belmont, a 1 1/2 -mile race carrying a purse of $1 million. He envisions winning "by daylight, easily."
"I just don't see no dogfight in this race," he said. "You can't imagine this race is going to be too far for him with these horses. He's not running against a real tough crowd, and he's a real good horse. I still haven't seen another 3-year-old step up to give Big Brown a run for his money."
If the undefeated Big Brown is to be derailed in his quest to become the 12th winner of the Triple Crown, something alarming likely will have to happen. Yet alarming things repeatedly have happened since Affirmed held off Alydar three times in a row and last captured the Triple Crown in 1978: The nearly invincible Spectacular Bid -- "the fastest horse to ever look through a bridle," according to the late trainer Grover "Bud" Delp -- didn't win the Belmont. Real Quiet looked home free under jockey Kent Desormeaux, who rides Big Brown, only to be run down and beaten in a photo finish by Victory Gallop in 1998. Charismatic broke down near the wire the year after that. War Emblem stumbled at the gate in 2002. Funny Cide worked too fast before the 2003 race. The plodding Birdstone caught Smarty Jones in 2004.
Big Brown has the built-in vulnerability of a quarter crack in his left front hoof, but most horsemen queried about the injury dismissed it as more of a nuisance than threat.
With morning-line odds of 2-5, Big Brown is an overwhelming favorite, and, strengthening his hand, his anticipated chief rival, Casino Drive, may be scratched after showing signs of a bruise Friday in his left rear hoof.
Should Casino Drive be withdrawn by his Japanese connections, only long shot Da' Tara would remain among the eight other entrants as a horse with confirmed front-running speed. In his five career starts, Big Brown has proved capable of seizing the lead and running his opposition into the ground, as he did in the Florida Derby; he can sit comfortably behind moderate fractions, gradually increase his stride and pull away, as he did in the Kentucky Derby; and he has ability to unleash a stunning burst of speed to instantly separate himself from the field, a new dimension on display in the Preakness.
His Belmont opponents have shown none of those talents.
"The favorite looks awful tough, but anything can happen in racing," said jockey John Velazquez, who will ride long-shot Ready's Echo for trainer Todd Pletcher. "Coming from off the pace, maybe I'll be the one to upset the Triple Crown.
"I'm hoping the speed shows up a little bit, and Big Brown breaks well and Casino Drive breaks well and, hopefully, they'll have a little duel."
Velazquez also hopes trainer Nick Zito has entered Da' Tara, second in the Barbaro Stakes on the Preakness undercard, to try to quicken the pace to enable his closer, Anak Nakal. Zito compared Anak Nakal to Birdstone.
"Believe it or not," Zito said, "the reason is that Birdstone had a very good 2-year-old year, and he didn't have such a good winter. Anak Nakal was a good 2-year-old."
Zito also pointed out that Birdstone ran eighth in the Kentucky Derby and Anak Nakal seventh, "and that's the theory I've got."
If Big Brown falters for some reason, the horses most likely to benefit are Tale of Ekati, the Wood Memorial winner; Denis of Cork, third in the Kentucky Derby; Macho Again, second in the Preakness; and Icabad Crane, who came in third.
Dutrow laughs at the concept of a horse other than Big Brown winning.
"They're going to have to show up tomorrow," Dutrow said with a touch of disdain in his voice. "I know my horse is going to show up."
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