Each Party Is Set to Hunt The Other's Usual Ground

McCain hopes to tap potential divisions within the Democratic Party by aggressively targeting disaffected Clinton supporters. "I would not have said that we would have targeted Democratic voters in the numbers we're looking at six months ago or four months ago," Davis said, adding: "We've seen significant movement in our direction."

McCain hopes those voters will help him hold on to Ohio, which has been critical to Republican success in the last two elections, and convert Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to the GOP column.

Merle Black, a political science professor at Emory University and co-author with his brother Earl of the book "Divided America," said that at this early stage, Obama might have more opportunities to put together an electoral majority than McCain.

"I think Obama has got a much clearer path to the presidency than McCain," he said.

McCain advisers expect things to get worse before turning back in their direction, as voters give Obama a boost from his victory over Clinton. "There's no doubt in my mind he'll probably get a record bounce," senior adviser Charlie Black said, pointing to the historic implications of Obama's victory in the primaries.

But the McCain adviser predicted that, when voters take a deeper look at their choice, they will find McCain more appealing, in part for ideological reasons. "The country is still a slightly right-of-center country," he said, "and [voters] think McCain is slightly right of center, and they think Obama is way off to the left."

For all the talk about an expanded electoral map with a host of new battlegrounds, the candidates are looking at a fairly traditional landscape.

While Obama has talked about competing in nontraditional states, there already are some states that were on both parties' target lists in past campaigns but that may be out of reach for him.

One is West Virginia, which Republicans have won in the past two elections and which Obama lost to Clinton in the primary by a stunning 41 points. Another more significant one could be Florida, although Obama intends to compete hard there. "I wouldn't feel as good [about Florida] if Hillary were the nominee," one McCain adviser said.

An analysis of past elections shows remarkable stability. States the Democrats have won in four of the past five elections add up to 255 electoral votes; states Republicans have won in five of the past seven elections (including two Ronald Reagan electoral landslides) account for 269 electoral votes. New Hampshire, New Mexico and West Virginia, representing 14 electoral votes, fall into neither category.

In 2004, 13 states were decided by seven or fewer percentage points: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

McCain sees potential to make his greatest inroads in the industrial heartland. Obama stumbled in Ohio and Pennsylvania and never competed in Michigan. Of those, Pennsylvania may be the most difficult for McCain.