Each Party Is Set to Hunt The Other's Usual Ground

In Michigan, the weak economy is likely to help Obama, but because the state is in the hands of Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm, McCain will try to appeal to voters who fit the "Reagan Democrat" mold.

Democrats would love to pick off Ohio after their near miss in 2004, but Obama's weakness in rural and Appalachian areas of the state makes the challenge greater. "The $10 million question is to what extent race will play an important role," said Kevin Boyle, a history professor at Ohio State University. "In a state like Ohio that's been so close every single recent election, the loss of even a point on something like race will potentially be devastating."

Elsewhere in the Midwest, Obama demonstrated significant strength in three states that were battlegrounds in the past two elections: Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. He also carried Missouri narrowly and will compete harder there than Kerry did.

Obama's rally Thursday in Northern Virginia signaled his intention to make the commonwealth and its 13 electoral votes a major battleground. Changing demographics and growing Democratic strength in the Washington suburbs make it possible for him to win Virginia, but McCain advisers think that he, too, can compete in the suburbs and has a natural base of strength in the military community.

Whether Obama can make other Southern states competitive is questionable. Florida will remain on everyone's targeting map, but McCain is a clear favorite there. Obama advisers hope to make North Carolina and possibly Georgia competitive. A large African American turnout could change the equation in both.

Of all the regions in the country, the Mountain West has emerged as the one that may be changing most politically. Fast growth, a rising Hispanic population and disaffection with Republicans have altered expectations in the region.

Both candidates expect fierce competition for the electoral votes of Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. All three went for Bush four years ago.

Analyzing the state of play at the start of the general election, one top McCain adviser said: "I think some people have thought that this was going to be a drastically redrawn map. I think it's going to be . . . tweaks around the edges."

Staff writer Alec MacGillis contributed to this report.