Both Parties Proclaim Boost for November From Primaries

Tuesday's congressional primaries have set the stage for an unusually competitive fall election season in which Northern Virginia voters are likely to determine whether the state once again supports a Republican president or shifts to the blue column for the first time in 44 years.

Gerald E. Connolly's victory in the 11th District bolsters a Democratic ticket that also will feature former governor Mark R. Warner, who is running for U.S. Senate, and Sen. Barack Obama for president. Connolly, the popular chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, who is vying for the open seat of Republican Tom Davis, hopes to deliver a sizable chunk of voters in Virginia's largest jurisdiction.

On the other hand, Rep. Frank R. Wolf (R) of the 10th District outperformed any other candidate in the region's five primaries. Wolf not only won his primary challenge with nearly 92 percent of the vote, but his performance illustrated that Northern Virginia's GOP base remains strong in places.

Wolf, Connolly and Warner have found favor with the public with a can-do, bipartisan style of governing on such issues as transportation funding, education quality and job growth. In the end, many observers agree that a Virginia victory for Obama (Ill.) or Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) will hinge on which presidential hopeful does better in adopting that approach with Northern Virginia's powerful voting bloc.

"The vote in Fairfax, with one in seven Virginia voters, is a huge opportunity area for the next president," said Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D), who will lead a coordinated effort to turn out Democratic voters across the state. "Having Gerry run so strongly in the 11th is going to help Senator Obama."

Added Wolf, who faces a rematch with Democrat Judy M. Feder in the 10th: "Folks are looking for people who are honest and open and ethical and take them across the finish line to make life better. That is the message here: Be a problem solver. Senator McCain is somebody who reaches across the aisle to solve problems."

Much is at stake this year in Virginia, where Connolly hopes to pick up a seat held by the GOP for 14 years, and where Warner faces former governor James S. Gilmore III in the race to replace Sen. John W. Warner (R), who is retiring. Democratic victories in the fall would add to the party's steady advancement in Virginia, where James Webb defeated George Allen in a Senate race two years ago and where Democrats took over the state Senate last year.

Democrats will be looking to increase their margins in already reliable enclaves such as Fairfax, Arlington and Alexandria, Kaine said. But they also will look to the outer suburbs, notably Prince William and Loudoun counties, to tap into potential veins of Democratic support. Warner's popularity in southwestern Virginia, where he performed strongly when he won the governorship in 2001, creates another opportunity for the entire Democratic ticket to do better than in previous years, Kaine said.

"The GOP strongholds are significantly diminished," said Connolly, speaking specifically about the 11th Congressional District, which encompasses central and southern Fairfax and a sliver of Prince William County. "There are fewer of them, and those that exist are under assault. They're just not the formidable strongholds they once were."

If Connolly and Warner help Obama, then Obama also helps them by energizing new voters to register, particularly younger ones, Kaine said. According to the State Board of Elections, about 110,000 more voters are registered than in January, compared with a net gain of 50,000 in 2004.

"We think registration is pretty strong for the Democrats," Kaine said. "I think the presidential race has really driven that."

That energy was not evident Tuesday, when turnout dipped below 3 percent in some precincts across Northern Virginia. Keith S. Fimian, the Republican who will face Connolly in the fall campaign, speculated that the low turnout (about 6 percent for the entire 11th District) was a sign that voters are not energized by Connolly's candidacy and that they are ready for change.

But the fact that Connolly drew more than 100,000 voters to the polls last November, when he won reelection as Fairfax County board chairman, suggests otherwise. So does the fact that Virginians turned out in record numbers for the presidential primaries in February.

Fimian, whom Davis is backing and who owns a house-inspection business, has raised hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions. He will run a spirited campaign against Connolly, he said, because he thinks the 11th remains in play for Republicans despite recent statewide elections in which the district has chosen Democrats.

Certainly, some of the low turnout numbers from Tuesday suggest that a Republican base remains in the 11th. Voter participation in the Democratic primary was particularly low in Prince William County and in a few traditionally Republican strongholds that have come out heavily for Davis in the past. Tuesday's anemic numbers there suggest that many voters who stayed home are Republicans who might well participate in November on Fimian's behalf.

"Keith is going to have to spend a lot of money to establish that name ID and put himself on the same footing with Connolly," said Jim Hyland, chairman of the Fairfax County Republican Committee. "But he's doing that."