A Bumpy Ride on Transportation

RICHMOND On Monday, the second special legislative session dealing with transportation since Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) took office in 2006 will get underway.

Kaine has proposed a $1 billion tax increase in response to the Virginia Supreme Court's ruling that regional taxing authorities in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, which were part of the 2007 transportation deal, are unconstitutional.

Although he may make some tweaks to his proposal before Monday, Kaine wants to boost the sales tax by 1 cent in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads to build more roads in those regions. He also wants a statewide $10 increase in annual vehicle registration fees and a 1 percent rise in the sales tax on new cars to cover a shortfall in the part of the budget used to maintain roads. In addition to those funds, Kaine is proposing a statewide 25-cent increase in the grantors tax, which is now 10 cents per $100 of assessed value, that owners pay on the sale of a house. The money, about $155 million annually, would be used to further invest in mass transit and rail.

Many Republicans, and some Democrats, oppose a statewide tax increase. Some GOP legislators might instead push for more efficiency within the Virginia Department of Transportation, tolls on interstate highways or another combination of tax and fee increases, which perhaps would be limited to Northern Virginia.

Some Senate Democrats, including Majority Leader Richard L. Saslaw (D-Fairfax), are also skeptical of Kaine's approach, instead favoring a statewide increase in the gas tax. Saslaw and Kaine have said they wouldn't support any GOP proposal that didn't include a way to raise revenue statewide to pay for the maintenance of roads.

So what will happen next week? Probably not much, but who knows? We won't even try to predict; we'll leave that to others. Here is a sampling of predictions -- and partisan shots -- from current and former legislators and lobbyists.

Del. Adam P. Ebbin (D-Alexandria): "I predict no agreement. House Republicans won't compromise. . . . We will be in for two days, then out for three weeks and then back in for a couple days" in July.

House Majority Leader H. Morgan Griffith (R-Salem): "I don't have any idea. It will be interesting to see if the Democrats have a coalition to coalesce around one plan instead of having 14 or 15 different plans, but I don't see that at this point. But maybe they will let us do something on Northern Virginia. [Democrats] have a governor and a majority of one of the Houses; let's see if they can exhibit leadership. Or they can get out of the way and let us fix Northern Virginia."

Del. David B. Albo (R-Fairfax), chairman of the Courts of Justice Committee: "I haven't had much luck getting the speaker or my caucus to do any statewide increase. I predict my caucus passes out local plans for Northern Virginia and then requires [VDOT] to do an efficiency audit."

Sen. J. Chapman Petersen (D-Fairfax): "I think we will report something from the Senate, and I predict it won't be a straight party line. We will get some Republican support. As to what version the bill will be, I don't know."

Del. Jeffrey M. Frederick (Prince William), chairman of the Virginia GOP: "There is a lot of people who want to go to Richmond who want to do something about transportation. But I don't think there are a lot of people who agree on a whole heck of a lot. It's not a partisan thing. Democrats don't agree with Democrats. Republicans don't agree with Republicans. Northern Virginia guys don't agree with Northern Virginia guys. Hampton Roads people don't agree with Hampton Roads people."

Sen. R. Edward Houck (D-Spotsylvania), chairman of the Education and Health Committee: "I think the governor and at least the Democrats are going to put forth some alternatives and hope we can get some compromise. The Senate is going to have a plan. The governor is going to have a plan. In fact, there may be multiple plans in the Senate, so there are going to be options for people to choose from."