Political Turmoil in Thailand Fuels Doubts About Government's Future

BANGKOK -- Four months into its tenure, an elected government that was meant to restore political stability in Thailand is facing street protests and other political challenges, raising doubts about both its longevity and the durability of Thailand's newest iteration of democracy.

When the People's Power Party took control in February -- after the first elections since a military coup in September 2006 -- many Thais hoped for an end to two years of political turmoil over Thaksin Shinawatra, the controversial former prime minister.

The new government's leaders sought to sustain that optimism, pledging to avoid sensitive political issues in their first six months in power and to dedicate their attention instead to the task of reviving a sluggish economy.

While the rumors of an imminent military coup that swept Bangkok several weeks ago have subsided, many Thais think the government will be short-lived.

On Friday, thousands of protesters laid siege to Government House, where the prime minister's office is located, to press for the government's resignation, pledging to stay until they achieved their goal.

"It's just a matter of when and what will be the trigger, but it's very likely that we will see political violence one way or another, in the form of street protests and a clash between the two sides, and then the military will intervene," said Sunai Phasuk, a political analyst with the New York-based advocacy group Human Rights Watch.

Underlying this is the continuing conflict between Thaksin's critics, who want to see him lose all influence in Thai politics, and his loyalists, who are trying to help the ousted prime minister reclaim his fortune.

"It's all about Thaksin," said Chris Baker, a Bangkok-based analyst and author of a political biography of the politician. "It's all about his money."

Thaksin, a former senior police official, founded a telecommunications empire and became a billionaire. He took over as prime minister in 2001 and commanded deep popularity in the villages, where most Thais live, as a rare national leader who cared about the quality of life there.

In 2006, his family's $1.9 billion, tax-free sale of Shin Corp., their telecom company, to Temasek Holdings, the huge Singapore investment fund, set off months of street protests in Bangkok. They ended when the military took power in September that year, with the support of many middle-class people who viewed Thaksin as corrupt.

After the coup, the ousted leader spent 18 months in exile, mainly in Britain, where he bought control of the Manchester City football club. The military-installed government seized the equivalent of about $2 billion from Thaksin's family and launched court cases against him for alleged abuse of power.

He retained his wide popularity through it all. In December, voters handed victory to the People's Power Party, which was essentially the successor to Thaksin's own disbanded party. Thaksin returned from exile.

Critics accuse the ruling party of subverting justice by transferring bureaucrats so as to obstruct legal cases against him. Thaksin himself has stepped up a drive to recover his funds.

The new government has also begun efforts to amend the military-sponsored constitution, in a move opponents say is an attempt to nullify the cases against Thaksin.

The People's Alliance for Democracy, the coalition of activist groups that organized the mass anti-Thaksin demonstrations in 2006, has resumed street protests, apparently backed by some politicians and military factions that hope to see the legal machinery destroy Thaksin and the ruling party.

Thus far, the demonstrations have remained relatively small in comparison with anti-Thaksin protests of the past, with many middle- and upper-class Bangkok residents weary of the endless politicking. Yet with the economy deteriorating and inflation rising to 7.6 percent in May, the ranks of protesters could swell.