An Edge for Obama

Friday, June 27, 2008

SWING STATES

An Edge for Obama

Barack Obama holds narrow leads over John McCain in Colorado and Michigan, two of the most competitive states in two of the most competitive regions of the country, heading into the general-election campaign, according to surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University for washingtonpost.com and the Wall Street Journal.

In two other states that were closely contested in the 2004 presidential election -- Wisconsin and Minnesota -- the Democrat holds double-digit edges among likely voters, an indication that these states may not be in the swing category this election. The Democratic nominee carried both Wisconsin and Minnesota in each of the past four elections, though John Kerry's victory margins were slim in 2004.

Among likely voters, Obama led McCain by 49 percent to 44 percent in Colorado, 48 to 42 in Michigan, 54 to 37 in Minnesota, and 52 to 39 in Wisconsin.

The polls were conducted June 17-24. The sample sizes and margins of error: Colorado: 1,351 voters, plus or minus 2.7 percent; Michigan: 1,411 voters, plus or minus 2.6 percent; Minnesota: 1,572 voters, plus or minus 2.5 percent; Wisconsin: 1,537 voters, plus or minus 2.5 percent.

The four surveys echo several recent national polls, although others, including the Gallup daily tracking poll, show the race to be much closer.

-- Chris Cillizza

PRO-OBAMA, ANTI-DOBSON

Minister Speaks Out

The Rev. Kirbyjon Caldwell, leader of the largest Methodist congregation in the country, launched a Web site yesterday called James Dobson Doesn't Speak for Me. The site is a jab at Dobson, a stalwart of the religious right who this week said that Barack Obama's interpretation of the Bible in a 2006 speech was distorted to fit Obama's "own worldview, his own confused theology."

Caldwell's site encourages readers to sign a statement declaring that Dobson does not represent them.

"I think it's a crime and a shame that Senator Obama has had to explain the fact that he's a Christian," Caldwell said in a recent interview. "Criticize his politics. Criticize his stance on whatever, but don't question his faith. Never in the history of American politics has someone said that he is a Christian and someone came back to say, 'No you're not.' "

If Caldwell's name sounds familiar, it may be because he is the same Rev. Caldwell who introduced President Bush at the 2000 Republican National Convention and last month officiated at Jenna Bush's wedding ceremony at the presidential ranch in Texas. For this election, Caldwell is firmly in the Obama camp and is doggedly trying to help the campaign bring other pastors and parishioners along.

Caldwell, who oversees the 14,000-member Windsor Village United Methodist Church in Houston, is not an official surrogate for the Obama campaign but has for months participated on a weekly Friday-morning prayer call with members of Obama's staff and other Christian ministers who dial in from across the country.

-- Krissah Williams

DELAYED ENDORSEMENT

AFL-CIO Backs Obama

After months of holding back, the AFL-CIO endorsed Barack Obama yesterday, saying it will put more than $50 million and hundreds of thousands of volunteers to work helping to put the senator from Illinois in the White House.

AFL-CIO President John Sweeney said in an interview that the coalition is confident that its efforts on Obama's behalf will prove more successful than its work on behalf of Al Gore and John Kerry in elections that left the labor movement facing an administration hostile to most labor demands.

"We've been on a roll in terms of the political program since 2006," he said. "Our sights are higher in terms of what we expect, the amount of money affiliates will put in, the amount of volunteers. . . . We have seen there is a greater interest on the part of this campaign. More people want to be involved, more folks are knowledgeable about the issues, all of them recognize the problems with the economy. . . . It's making folks angry and wanting to be involved."

Sweeney acknowledged that the labor group has work to do in introducing its members to Obama, who was derided as weak and ineffectual during his primary battle against Hillary Clinton by AFL-CIO union chiefs including the presidents of the International Machinists and Aerospace Workers and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.

"We're going to be spending a lot of time educating workers on Senator Obama and what his track record has been," he said. "I think we're going to be able to convert a lot of those workers over to Obama."

Sweeney said he is unconcerned by some recent attempts by Obama to shift away from some of the stances he staked out in the primaries in his bid for labor backing in Rust Belt states. In a recent interview with Fortune, Obama said that some of his anti-trade rhetoric had gotten overheated, signaling to the magazine's business readers that he would not necessarily move to unilaterally overhaul the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Obama "has every right to modify his positions on issues, but the bottom line is he's firmly committed to so many of the issues important to workers," he said.

-- Alec MacGillis