Census Switch Worries Some

Return to Paper Forms Leaves Little Time for Adjustment

With the 2010 Census less than two years away, independent demographers and congressional overseers are worried that the Census Bureau will not be prepared to accurately record the nation's racial and ethnic minorities, illegal immigrants and the poor -- groups that historically have been undercounted.

Much of the concern stems from the bureau's decision in April to scrap a plan to use wireless hand-held devices to collect information from people who don't mail back their census forms. Minorities, immigrants and poor people are more likely to lack fixed addresses and to find census forms confusing or suspicious and therefore are less likely to return them by mail, experts said. Following up with home visits is crucial to ensuring that they are tallied.

During previous censuses, agency field workers conducting follow-ups recorded people's answers using pen and paper. The hand-held devices were supposed to enable workers to relay the information to headquarters much faster, making it easier to avoid duplicate visits to a home and freeing them to go to more locations. Instead, technological problems with the devices have left the bureau little time to organize the switch back to the original system.

"We're really treading on new ground with such a large change being made at such a late date," said Terry M. Ao, director of census and voting programs at the Asian American Justice Center, which serves on the Census Bureau's Advisory Council for the 2010 Census. "It just makes me very nervous that things are not going to happen when they need to happen."

Using the devices also would have been considerably cheaper than the paper-based system. And although Congress approved $210 million in extra funding for the 2010 Census as part of the supplemental budget signed by the president June 30, many watchers wonder whether, amid the worsening economic climate, Congress and the White House will come through with the rest of the $2.2 billion to $3 billion that the return to a paper-based census is expected to add to the $11.5 billion cost.

"I think it's very risky to take the funding for granted," said Terri Ann Lowenthal, a former chief staff member on the House subcommittee that oversees the census and now a consultant to the Census Project, a broad coalition of stakeholders in the census. "Congress doesn't have money to throw around, and I think [members] are genuinely upset with some of the bumps in the road so far. They will want to know that the money will be well spent."

If the bureau does not get sufficient funding for the shift to a paper-based follow-up, said Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, "my concern is that the Census Bureau is going to start shortchanging programs they consider less essential, such as paid advertising targeting [under-covered] groups."

Steve H. Murdock, who became director of the Census Bureau six months ago, said the agency faces challenges. But he said he has corrected management problems that contributed to the breakdown of the plan for hand-held devices and incorporated procedures to anticipate and correct problems created by the compressed preparation schedule.

"Our people are reinvigorated by the new plan and ready to go forward," he said. "The Census Bureau, as always, is totally dedicated to providing a good census for the American people."

As for reaching out to historically hard-to-cover groups, Murdock said the bureau is carefully designing a $200 million paid advertising campaign and hiring 680 specialists to partner with local community leaders. For the first time, census questionnaires will be available in Spanish, and guides directing non-English speakers to census workers who can translate for them will be printed in about 50 languages.

"I am strongly committed to those programs and have no plans to cut back on them," Murdock said.

The stakes are high because of the enormous role the once-a-decade head count plays in American life. The Constitution mandates that census results be used to apportion the number of representatives each state sends to Congress.