Va. Tries Again To Fund Roads

The Democratic trends of Northern Virginia can be attributed to numerous factors, including President Bush's low approval ratings, the war in Iraq and a rapidly diversifying electorate.

But Robert E. Lang, director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, said traffic has come to symbolize how Northern Virginians feel they are being treated by the rest of the state, which they view as largely controlled by Republicans.

"Suburban voters in Washington already fit the demographic Republicans are having trouble with nationally: ethnically diverse, and whites with advanced degrees," Lang said. "You throw in some local issues like traffic that also bother people, and it is a fairly explosive dynamic."

Although Virginia has traditionally been a low-tax state, Lang said average suburban voters populating places such as Loudoun, Prince William and Fairfax counties are willing to pay higher taxes if they believe the money is being put to good use.

But some Virginia Republicans argue that the Democratic trends in Northern Virginia, and to a lesser extent in Hampton Roads, have little to do with transportation. They point out that a 2002 referendum to raise taxes and fees to pay for road and rail projects failed in the two regions.

"Republicans in Northern Virginia are going to get slammed no matter what they say," said former state senator James K. "Jay" O'Brien, a Republican who lost his Fairfax seat last year to Sen. George Barker (D), who campaigned on the issue of transportation. "The influx of New Englanders and other folks into a county like Fairfax may now be such that, no matter what happens, the public is still going to vote Democratic. The only question is the choice of Democrat."

But some Democrats -- and even some Republicans -- believe that the GOP leadership has all but given up on Northern Virginia as unessential to the long-term health of the state party. Democrats are six seats shy of a House majority, meaning all three GOP delegates from Fairfax could lose next year and the party would still maintain the majority.

"They say we don't need these people from Northern Virginia," said former Republican delegate Vincent F. Callahan of Fairfax, who expects the GOP to become the minority party in Virginia within six years.

House Majority Leader H. Morgan Griffith (R-Salem) thinks Callahan is wrong, but he said the GOP can offset potential losses in Northern Virginia with gains in other parts of the state more averse to taxes.

"If [transportation] is the Democrats' wedge issue to take control, I think they made a miscalculation," Griffith said.

Even if the GOP majority in the House is secure, many analysts believe the ongoing debate over transportation threatens Republican candidates in statewide races for years to come -- considering the growing population of Northern Virginia -- regardless of whether lawmakers agree on a bill this year.

"The Republicans have become associated in some voters' minds with a lack of action, and it takes a while to dig yourself out of that," Lang said.